The 2016 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished second in the majors and the American League in 2015 with 4.72 runs scored per game.
Once again I am using a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today as a source of default lineups. The two disagree on Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez, flipping them between the third and fifth spots. The also reverse Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro eighth and ninth. The USA Today lineup looks more likely to me, so I’m going with that one. That Joe Girardi lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.55
Probable lineup: 4.51
Worst lineup: 4.38
Regressed lineup: 4.21
The Marcels are really knocking down the offense of this old team. The heart of the order is ancient, with Mark Teixeira the youngest at 36, Beltran playing at 39, and Rodriguez at 40, all seasonal ages. Despite that, the LAT does like Teixeira in the cleanup slot, but A-Rod batting second. It also likes Chase Headley batting ninth.
Note that while none of the players project to produce great OBPs, none project to produce terrible ones, either. The lineup won’t punish pitchers, but there won’t be any easy outs, either.
The Yankees, mostly due to their age, don’t possess much upside. Most of the upside would come from keeping players healthy, and Alex Rodriguez building back some season-long stamina. The one exception to this is Starlin Castro. He finally seemed to find his potential at the end of the 2015 season. If he keeps hitting like that, expect him to move up in the Yankees batting order. Overall, however, I would expect fewer runs this season from the Bronx Bombers.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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