AL East Race

The Yankees beat the Blue Jays 2-0 Wednesday night. The Orioles fell to the Rays 7-6 while the Red Sox beat the Padres 7-2. That put the Red Sox in first place in the AL East, and they Yankees back into the division picture. Both the Astros, the Tigers, and the Royals lost, meaning the Yankees gained in the AL Wild Card race as well.

The Yankees may have their best chance in the AL East, however, as they play 14 of their last 24 games against the teams ahead of them in the AL East. Seven of those are against the Red Sox, so they get chance to close the entire distance on the first place team. There are a total of 27 games left head-to-head among the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees. To get an idea of what the Yankees would need to do to win the division, a four-way tie is possible at 92 wins:

Red Sox	14-9
Blue Jays	15-8
Orioles	16-7
Boston	19-5

Note that this an extreme. A tie is possible if the four teams combine for at least 27 losses and at least 27 wins. If a tie were to happen, it’s much more likely with the Red Sox winning 11 or 12 games. So the Yankees are probably looking at 16 to 17 wins to even have a chance at a division title.

The three-game series this weekend should be interesting as well. The Orioles play the Tigers, Detroit one game back of Baltimore for the second wild card slot. The Blue Jays play the Red Sox, the Blue Jays one game back for the division lead. The Yankees play the Rays, Tampa Bay trying to be a spoiler. If the Yankees can sweep while Detroit takes two of three from Baltimore and the Jays take two of three from the Red Sox, the Yankees path to the division and/or Wild Card gets a bit easier.

All that said, I don’t think the Yankees are a very good team. They probably should finish the season close to .500. I very much like the way Joe Girardi didn’t give up on winning because the Yankees traded for the future. He’s getting a lot out of some untested players. He will give Terry Francona and Jeff Banister a run for manager of the year.

I’ll give Boston’s own Bette Davis the last word:

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cnmqcE