Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.283 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Jose Urena
0.281 — Jose Reyes batting against Jose Urena
0.275 — Martin Prado batting against Jacob deGrom
0.270 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.269 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jacob deGrom
0.268 — Neil Walker batting against Jose Urena
0.268 — James Loney batting against Jose Urena
0.263 — Wilmer Flores batting against Jose Urena
0.263 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Jose Urena
0.261 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ervin Santana
0.261 — Jose Abreu batting against Ervin Santana

With only four games scheduled this Thursday, there is slim pickings among the batters available. The probability of a hit in a plate appearance for the top players is usually above .300. That said, the Log5 method gives the players on the Mets the best chance of recording a hit.

The NN produces this list:

0.275, 0.713 — Martin Prado batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.260, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.269, 0.701 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.283, 0.700 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Jose Urena.
0.281, 0.698 — Jose Reyes batting against Jose Urena.
0.258, 0.692 — Justin Morneau batting against Ervin Santana.
0.261, 0.688 — Jose Abreu batting against Ervin Santana.
0.258, 0.687 — Christian Yelich batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.259, 0.687 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.261, 0.685 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ervin Santana.

The top probability for a hit in a game is usually around .750. This may be a day you don’t want to play. That said, the NN likes the Marlins versus the Mets, so the two systems will have you watching the game between those two teams.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.275, 0.715 — Martin Prado batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.260, 0.706 — Dee Gordon batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.283, 0.705 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Jose Urena.
0.269, 0.704 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.281, 0.704 — Jose Reyes batting against Jose Urena.
0.258, 0.696 — Justin Morneau batting against Ervin Santana.
0.261, 0.693 — Jose Abreu batting against Ervin Santana.
0.259, 0.692 — Ender Inciarte batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.258, 0.691 — Christian Yelich batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.261, 0.691 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ervin Santana.

Prado and Cespedes appear to be the consensus picks. Today, 30% of the time your best picks won’t get a hit. Good luck!

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