Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.315 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.309 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright
0.308 — Carlos Beltran batting against Daniel Wright
0.308 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich
0.305 — Paulo Orlando batting against James Shields
0.304 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Daniel Wright
0.303 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.303 — Rougned Odor batting against Daniel Wright
0.301 — Ender Inciarte batting against Bartolo Colon

Daniel Wright appears to be the pitcher to face today, although the four batters listed against him are very good hitters. Odor in 2016 is the kind of hitter that is good for a beat the streak contest. With a .280 BA and a .304 OBP, if he reaches base, it will most likely be by a hit.

The NN produces this list:

0.316, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.275, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against John Lackey.
0.315, 0.738 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.308, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.288, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.305, 0.723 — Paulo Orlando batting against James Shields.
0.294, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.309, 0.721 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright.
0.289, 0.720 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.269, 0.719 — Francisco Lindor batting against Hector Santiago.
0.303, 0.719 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.278, 0.719 — Dustin Pedroia batting against J.A. Happ.
0.296, 0.719 — Charles Blackmon batting against Christian Friedrich.

The NN returns Altuve to the list, but Murphy and Turner look like the consensus picks so far. There is a big tie at the end of the list, with the very hot Dustin Pedroia making the cut.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.316, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.315, 0.743 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.308, 0.741 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.275, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against John Lackey.
0.288, 0.733 — Corey Seager batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.305, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against James Shields.
0.303, 0.726 — Manny Machado batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.294, 0.726 — J.D. Martinez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.309, 0.725 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright.
0.296, 0.725 — Charles Blackmon batting against Christian Friedrich.

Turner is like Odor, only at a higher level. He is batting .345 this season with a .365 OBP. He reaches base with hits, not walks, and he reaches base a lot. Remember, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2crOtcu