Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta
0.333 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller
0.325 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta
0.319 — Charles Blackmon batting against Shelby Miller
0.315 — David Dahl batting against Shelby Miller
0.314 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Shelby Miller
0.313 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Wade Miley
0.312 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez
0.311 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade Miley
0.310 — Sandy Leon batting against Wade Miley

Log5 picks batters against Peralta, Miller, and Miley. Jose Peraza, the hot rookie second baseman for the Reds, makes the cut for the first time.

The NN produces this list:

0.312, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.333, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller.
0.313, 0.738 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Wade Miley.
0.289, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rafael Montero.
0.311, 0.735 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade Miley.
0.290, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.293, 0.731 — Francisco Lindor batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.325, 0.730 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.334, 0.728 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta.
0.319, 0.728 — Charles Blackmon batting against Shelby Miller.

Altuve and Pedroia bubble to the top of the list along with LeMahieu and Murphy. It’s the year of the high average second basemen.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.312, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.333, 0.752 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Shelby Miller.
0.313, 0.744 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Wade Miley.
0.311, 0.741 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade Miley.
0.289, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rafael Montero.
0.334, 0.737 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta.
0.325, 0.737 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.290, 0.736 — Corey Seager batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.293, 0.734 — Francisco Lindor batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.319, 0.734 — Charles Blackmon batting against Shelby Miller.

Peraza moves back up a bit based on the park. Altuve and LeMahieu appear to be the consensus picks. Remember, about 25% of the time your best pick will fail to get a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cSQspp