Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.336 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller
0.318 — Devon Travis batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.315 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson
0.312 — Trea Turner batting against Joshua Collmenter
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joshua Collmenter
0.308 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell
0.304 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Leake
0.303 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell
0.302 — Andrew Toles batting against Shelby Miller
0.302 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Leake

Altuve’s injury appears to be minor, as he went 2 for 5 Friday night.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.337, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.336, 0.753 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller.
0.311, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joshua Collmenter.
0.318, 0.747 — Devon Travis batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.745 — Trea Turner batting against Joshua Collmenter.
0.315, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.308, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.303, 0.731 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.300, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.300, 0.722 — Charles Blackmon batting against Edwin Jackson.

The two methods are in close agreement today.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.337, 0.770 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.336, 0.757 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller.
0.311, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joshua Collmenter.
0.315, 0.753 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.318, 0.751 — Devon Travis batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.750 — Trea Turner batting against Joshua Collmenter.
0.308, 0.742 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.303, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.300, 0.733 — Charles Blackmon batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.300, 0.730 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.

Altuve and Corey Seager are the clear consensus choices. Remember, your best pick is likely to fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cwOIn7