Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Wisler
0.320 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Wisler
0.309 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray
0.305 — Kris Bryant batting against Wily Peralta
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova
0.299 — Javier Baez batting against Wily Peralta
0.298 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Wily Peralta
0.297 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ross Detwiler
0.297 — Francisco Lindor batting against Daniel Norris
0.297 — Devon Travis batting against Alex Meyer

Recently, someone commented that they never saw Cubs hitters in the list. That is true. The hitters on Cubs tend to be selective, high BA and high OBP. The number of walks they draw per PA limit their ability to get a hit in a game. A really bad pitcher like Wily Peralta can pull the Cubs into the top ten.

Do they survive the NN? Here is the top produced by that program:

0.320, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Wisler.
0.326, 0.755 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Wisler.
0.289, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.309, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.297, 0.739 — Devon Travis batting against Alex Meyer.
0.284, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.297, 0.726 — Francisco Lindor batting against Daniel Norris.
0.288, 0.725 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.287, 0.724 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.293, 0.719 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marcus Stroman.

No, the NN agrees on Murphy and Turner in the top two spots in some order, but prefers the Red Sox hitters to the Cubs. The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.326, 0.759 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Wisler.
0.320, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Wisler.
0.309, 0.747 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.289, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.297, 0.740 — Devon Travis batting against Alex Meyer.
0.284, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.288, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.287, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.297, 0.729 — Francisco Lindor batting against Daniel Norris.
0.297, 0.725 — Adrian Beltre batting against Ross Detwiler.

It’s Trea Turner’s world, we just live in it. He owns 29 extra-base hits in 257 PA since the all-star break. As always, your top pick will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2chUYxR