Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ryan Weber
0.335 — Trea Turner batting against Ryan Weber
0.317 — Mookie Betts batting against Edwin Jackson
0.314 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Edwin Jackson
0.314 — Sandy Leon batting against Edwin Jackson
0.310 — Wilson Ramos batting against Ryan Weber
0.309 — Jose Peraza batting against Bartolo Colon
0.307 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver
0.306 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Edwin Jackson

It looks like a good day to take a Red Sox hitter with Edwin Jackson on the mound, or a National against Ryan Weber. Weber’s career consists of 50 2/3 innings, so there should be a good deal of regression involved in his stats, so the Nats against him may be under valued.

The NN produces this list:

0.341, 0.760 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ryan Weber.
0.287, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.317, 0.741 — Mookie Betts batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.335, 0.740 — Trea Turner batting against Ryan Weber.
0.314, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.299, 0.731 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.293, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Zack Greinke.
0.305, 0.727 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.306, 0.725 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.304, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.

Altuve ranks high on this list. He played at DH yesterday and did not get a hit, so the injury is not so severe as to keep his bat out of the lineup.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.341, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ryan Weber.
0.317, 0.746 — Mookie Betts batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.287, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.335, 0.745 — Trea Turner batting against Ryan Weber.
0.314, 0.742 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.299, 0.734 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.305, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.306, 0.730 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.304, 0.730 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.277, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore.
0.314, 0.729 — Sandy Leon batting against Edwin Jackson.

Murphy and Betts appear to be the consensus picks. As always, about 25% of the time your picks will fail to get a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cB82PO