Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Alec Asher
0.313 — Charles Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.310 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Alec Asher
0.304 — David Dahl batting against Clayton Richard
0.302 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard
0.295 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard
0.293 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova
0.287 — Francisco Lindor batting against David Paulino

Pitcher who have not pitched much this season, (or at all) figure highly in the list today.

The NN produces this list:

0.313, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Alec Asher.
0.324, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.310, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Alec Asher.
0.313, 0.728 — Charles Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against David Paulino.
0.310, 0.720 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.715 — Robinson Cano batting against Derek Holland.
0.293, 0.711 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.710 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard.

It’s looking like a good day to choose the NL batting average leaders.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.313, 0.755 — Daniel Murphy batting against Alec Asher.
0.324, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.310, 0.742 — Trea Turner batting against Alec Asher.
0.276, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.313, 0.733 — Charles Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.287, 0.731 — Francisco Lindor batting against David Paulino.
0.310, 0.728 — Jose Peraza batting against Ivan Nova.
0.285, 0.718 — Robinson Cano batting against Derek Holland.
0.293, 0.718 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ivan Nova.
0.302, 0.717 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Clayton Richard.

Today, the parks don’t make much of a difference. Your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2c0CxvS