Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.358 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo
0.346 — David Dahl batting against Luis Perdomo
0.346 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.335 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.334 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey
0.329 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.318 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — Jose Ramirez batting against Tyler Duffey
0.309 — Tom Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Lonnie Chisenhall batting against Tyler Duffey

Perdomo continues to be a very hittable pitcher.

The NN produces this list:

0.358, 0.763 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.334, 0.754 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.346, 0.746 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.346, 0.736 — David Dahl batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.269, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Jon Lester.
0.335, 0.729 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.298, 0.728 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson.
0.329, 0.727 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.272, 0.723 — Corey Seager batting against Jose Fernandez.

The NN brings in some other good hitters, but the Rockies against Perdomo still dominate.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.358, 0.768 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.334, 0.759 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.346, 0.753 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.346, 0.746 — David Dahl batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.335, 0.738 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.329, 0.736 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.269, 0.735 — Jose Altuve batting against Jon Lester.
0.298, 0.733 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson.
0.272, 0.724 — Corey Seager batting against Jose Fernandez.

The consensus top of the list appears to be LeMahieu, Blackmon, and Lindor. Not a bad group. As always, about 25% of the time your top picks will not get a hit.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cyYekZ