Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.299 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright
0.272 — Brandon Drury batting against Matt Moore
0.272 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton
0.270 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Pineda
0.268 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Moore
0.264 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.263 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Wainwright
0.262 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Matt Moore
0.262 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Taijuan Walker
0.262 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Tyler Chatwood

Trea Turner’s status is day to day right now, and he might wind up on the disabled list. Once again, Daniel Murphy rises to the top of this list. Jose Altuve is off to a poor start this season otherwise he would be in competition with Murphy for the top slot.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.299, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.264, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.272, 0.699 — Jean Segura batting against Charlie Morton.
0.268, 0.692 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Moore.
0.272, 0.690 — Brandon Drury batting against Matt Moore.
0.263, 0.686 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.262, 0.683 — Yangervis Solarte batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.262, 0.682 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.255, 0.680 — Corey Seager batting against Jon Lester.
0.260, 0.679 — Robinson Cano batting against Charlie Morton.

Altuve does come out near the top of this list, as the NN does a bit of a better job of balancing long and short term trends. Robinson Cano and Corey Seager replace Yasmany Tomas and Corey Dickerson on this list. Once again, Daniel Murphy is the consensus pick. Note that Murphy has hit Wainwright well in his career.

As always, this is not a prediction, it simply is a way of evaluating the probabilities. The best hitters on the list will fail to get a hit 25 to 30 percent of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2oiLDJ6