Subbing Hamilton

Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs suggests to Billy Hamilton of the Reds a change of strategy, and a very interesting discussion ensues that attracts a number of Hamilton’s teammates:

I followed by inquiring about whether he has ever been asked about playing a super-sub, utility role.

“Who wants to be a super sub?” Hamilton retorted. “You are asking me why I suck, basically.”

“No, no,” this author explained. I wasn’t suggesting limiting Hamilton to a lone pinch-running appearance late in the game or entering as a defensive replacement. Rather, I was curious if the Reds had ever discussed using him earlier in the game as a pinch-runner and then leaving him in the game, in essence to artificially increase his on-base percentage and give his speed more opportunities to make an impact. Of course, the starting pitcher and, say, Joey Votto would be immune to such a strategy — and perhaps the catcher, too — but any other player could be swapped out for Hamilton and his legs.

Would Hamilton be open to this?

By his expression, it seemed clear that he had never been approached with this idea, never considered it, and was possibly wondering who had issued me a press credential.

“You need help, Billy?!” shouted someone from across the room, apparently eavesdropping or at least reading his teammate’s body language.

Spoiler alert, Hamilton does not like the idea, but other Reds thought it would not be so bad.

When I worked at ESPN, baseball players had the reputation of being the least intelligent of professional athletes. That makes some sense, as many don’t go to college. Many of them today seem to understand the math behind the strategy, so I wonder if that’s changing?

Tom Tango does some math on the issue:

That’s the tradeoff: a huge instant gain of getting Hamilton into the game by placing him on base, with the dribble-drabble cost of a bench player usually being paired with him, and losing a roster player.

Unless I missed something in my back of the envelope calculation above, this seems like a decent tradeoff, a total gain of 0.06 runs, every game, for the cost of a roster player.

If I had Hamilton in a simulation, I would definitely try this strategy.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2oKJ2J3