The 2018 series on team offense Continues with the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished second in the majors and the American Leauge in 2017 with 5.30 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Aaron Boone order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.54
Probable lineup: 5.46
Worst lineup: 5.18
Regressed lineup: 4.90
The Yankees lineup projects to beat the Astros lineup. What’s really scary is that due to 2017 injuries, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird all have upside potential for this season. Gleyber Torres are the default for a player with no MLB experience, and he’s supposed to be very good. I suppose if everything went right, this team might score six runs per game.
Note that one thing the LAT discovered, in addition to the worst hitter batting eighth, is that the third slot is much less important that in the traditional lineup. That is partly due to using a player good at getting on base batting ninth. The LAT likes Brett Gardner batting in front of Judge, but with Gardner ninth and Judge first. The Yankees are going to present opposition starting pitchers with a very tough first inning no matter how they draw up the top of the order.
While I tend not to care too much about RBI totals, it’s possible that Judge, with Torres and Gardner in front of him, might chase a modern record. In the 162 game era, only nine player-seasons reached the 150 RBI plateau. Manny Ramirez, with 165 RBI in 1999 holds the record for that time frame. Of course, if they pitch around Judge, Stanton might have the big RBI year, and if they pitch around Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez, Bird might drive in 200.
Note that while the best and default lineups are projected to be better than the Astros, the lowest scoring Yankees lineup is projected to be worse. The Astros are a more balanced team. The Yankees are less prepared than the Astros to overcome injuries to their best hitters. Still, it should be a fun summer at Yankee Stadium.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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