The 2018 series on team offense continues with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins finished eleventh in the major leagues and fifth in the National League in 2017 with 4.80 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Don Mattingly order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers slot, I used the actual values produced by the Marlins pitchers in 2017. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.27
Probable lineup: 4.02
Worst lineup: 3.67
Regressed lineup: 3.97
The Marlins offense looks like it is going to drop about as much as you might expect. The sell off would appear to have cost the team at least half a run per game, and maybe as much as 0.8 runs per game. The LAT like Derek Dietrich and Lewis Brinson batting higher, and Cameron Maybin and Starlin Castro batting lower, but it doesn’t really make that much of a difference.
Note that the team should do a decent job of getting on base. There is no power to move those runners along however. If the Marlins had the pitching, this would be a good small-ball team, but I doubt the staff will limit opposing offenses that much.
The pitchers in the order offer a chance for an improvement. Last season they posted a .107 OBP with a .098 slugging percentage. They struck out 151 times in 316 PA. If the Marlins can just get them to put the bat on the ball a little more often, they might reach the league averages for pitchers hitting.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Washington Nationals
- Cleveland Indians
- Minnesota Twins
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Texas Rangers
- Boston Red Sox
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