Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray
0.306 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson
0.304 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.301 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.300 — Cameron Maybin batting against Kyle Gibson
0.297 — Charles Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray
0.296 — Corey Seager batting against CC Sabathia
0.296 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Clayton Richard
0.295 — Jose Peraza batting against Matt Garza
0.295 — Victor Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.295 — Brandon Phillips batting against Matt Garza

It looks like a good night to choose a Tiger’s hitter with Kyle Gibson on the mound for the Twins. I’m a bit surprised to see Turner and Murphy on this list against Syndergaard, but he walks so few batters that a hit is the way to get on against him.

The NN produces this list:

0.294, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.304, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.310, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.296, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against CC Sabathia.
0.301, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.313, 0.731 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.730 — Devon Travis batting against Drew Smyly.
0.306, 0.727 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.726 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.284, 0.725 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Quintana.

Altuve makes this list at the top, while Murphy and Turner still rank high, as does LeMahieu.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.304, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.294, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.310, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.296, 0.741 — Corey Seager batting against CC Sabathia. P
0.301, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.313, 0.736 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.732 — Devon Travis batting against Drew Smyly.
0.306, 0.732 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.284, 0.728 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Quintana.

There is very little difference between the NNs today. It looks like Murphy and LeMahieu are the consensus picks. Remember, 25% of the time your top pick will not get a hit. Good luck!

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