Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.328 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo
0.327 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.324 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Duffey
0.319 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland
0.318 — Angel Pagan batting against Luis Perdomo
0.316 — Ramiro Pena batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman

Log5 seems to be telling us to pick any Giants hitter. After pitching well his last two starts in August, Perdomo allowed 17 hits in his last two starts, covering 12 2/3 innings.

The NN produces this list:

0.319, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.313, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.311, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Michael Pineda.
0.324, 0.736 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.319, 0.735 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.307, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.291, 0.731 — Devon Travis batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.304, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.327, 0.730 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.295, 0.730 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kevin Gausman.

The two systems agree on the position of J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. The first three are very different, however.

The NN with Park factored in produces this list:

0.319, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.313, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.311, 0.748 — Corey Seager batting against Michael Pineda.
0.324, 0.743 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.319, 0.741 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.327, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.329, 0.736 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.307, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.295, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.304, 0.734 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.328, 0.734 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo.

Considering the park brings the Giants players against Perdomo back into the mix. The consensus is tough today. Eduardo Nunez and J.D. Martinez, maybe? As always, your top pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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