Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Devon Travis batting against Daniel Wright
0.316 — Jorge Polanco batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.309 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.307 — Corey Seager batting against Archie Bradley
0.306 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields
0.302 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.294 — Brian Dozier batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.294 — Jose Ramirez batting against James Shields
0.294 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.293 — Starling Marte batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.292 — Kevin Pillar batting against Daniel Wright

It’s a good day to hit for the Twins.

The NN produces a list with more team diversity:

0.333, 0.753 — Devon Travis batting against Daniel Wright.
0.307, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Archie Bradley.
0.306, 0.734 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.293, 0.720 — Starling Marte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.274, 0.717 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.270, 0.710 — Yunel Escobar batting against J.A. Happ.
0.268, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.285, 0.707 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.281, 0.707 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.316, 0.707 — Jorge Polanco batting against Mike Pelfrey.

There’s little agreement here, except that Travis should be the top pick.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.333, 0.754 — Devon Travis batting against Daniel Wright.
0.307, 0.747 — Corey Seager batting against Archie Bradley.
0.306, 0.736 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.293, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.274, 0.722 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.316, 0.718 — Jorge Polanco batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.309, 0.716 — Eddie Rosario batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.268, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.270, 0.714 — Yunel Escobar batting against J.A. Happ.
0.285, 0.714 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Mengden.

Playing in Detroit helps the Twins against Pelfrey. Travis, Corey Seager, and Lindor appear to be the consensus choices. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Beat the Streak held a contest yesterday in which you were allowed to choose 57 players, and if they all collected at least one hit in the game, you won the grand prize. I picked the top players in the NN with Park list. Of the 57, nine did not start, although one of them did pinch hit (he did not get a hit). Of the remaining 48 players, 31 collected at least one hit, 64.6%. Part of the problem was that I chose a number of Giants players, and Luis Perdomo pitched a good game for a change. I would have expected closer to 70% of the starters to get a hit. There is probably room for improvement in the models, a project for the off-season. If MLB runs the contest again next week, I’ll report the results again.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cxepjm