Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan
0.331 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan
0.325 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver
0.320 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan
0.315 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Gant
0.310 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Adam Morgan
0.309 — Trea Turner batting against John Gant
0.306 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh
0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich

Log5 likes the Marlins against Adam Morgan.

The NN produces this list:

0.314, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Gant.
0.325, 0.749 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver.
0.337, 0.745 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan.
0.331, 0.739 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan.
0.304, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.302, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Zack Greinke.
0.309, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against John Gant.
0.264, 0.733 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.315, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.320, 0.726 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan.

It take Felix Hernandez to knock Jose Altuve out of the top spot. He is also injured.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.314, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Gant.
0.337, 0.751 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan.
0.325, 0.751 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver.
0.304, 0.747 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.331, 0.745 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan.
0.302, 0.741 — Corey Seager batting against Zack Greinke.
0.309, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against John Gant.
0.315, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.320, 0.733 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan.
0.264, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.

Travis, Realmuto, and Murphy appear to be the consensus picks today. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2crUBNk