Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.338 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.332 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard
0.304 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard
0.301 — Phil Gosselin batting against Clayton Richard
0.300 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard
0.300 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard
0.299 — Christopher Owings batting against Clayton Richard
0.296 — Wilson Ramos batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.294 — Jon Jay batting against Braden Shipley

Batters are hitting .311 against Clayton Richard in 206 AB.

The NN produces this list:

0.338, 0.764 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.345, 0.763 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.332, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.732 — Devon Travis batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.275, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.285, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.285, 0.721 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.300, 0.719 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285, 0.715 — Yunel Escobar batting against Martin Perez.

Murphy, Turner, and Segura emerge as the early consensus picks. The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.345, 0.766 — Trea Turner batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.338, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.292, 0.746 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.332, 0.743 — Jean Segura batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.732 — Devon Travis batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.275, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.285, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.285, 0.725 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.300, 0.723 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard.
0.285, 0.721 — Yunel Escobar batting against Martin Perez.

Turner tripled yesterday, and in a bit over 1/3 of a season owns 31 extra-base hits, seven of them triples. I can’t wait to see what kind of triples total his power and speed post in a full season. As always, your top picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cBMyzo