Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.348 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Andrew Toles batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Howie Kendrick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.314 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland
0.308 — Justin Turner batting against Luis Perdomo
0.301 — Yasiel Puig batting against Luis Perdomo
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman
0.300 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman
0.298 — Josh Reddick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.298 — Ryan Braun batting against Ivan Nova

The Log5 method continues to like batters against Luis Perdomo. Perdomo pitched better lately, however, so be careful.

The NN produces this list:

0.314, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.348, 0.759 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.290, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.300, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.291, 0.726 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Braden Shipley.
0.286, 0.719 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.276, 0.716 — Yunel Escobar batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.289, 0.716 — Starling Marte batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.315, 0.715 — Howie Kendrick batting against Luis Perdomo.

Gsellman only pitched nine innings, so the NN sees him as a league average pitcher. Murphy kills league average pitching.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.348, 0.763 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Derek Holland.
0.301, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.291, 0.735 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Braden Shipley.
0.290, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.300, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.286, 0.725 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.315, 0.723 — Howie Kendrick batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.320, 0.722 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.289, 0.721 — Starling Marte batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.281, 0.721 — Charles Blackmon batting against Braden Shipley.

Corey Seager and Jose Altuve appear to be the consensus picks. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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