Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.309 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson
0.308 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris
0.305 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.303 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich
0.302 — Adrian Beltre batting against Collin McHugh
0.302 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Archie Bradley
0.302 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman
0.299 — Carlos Beltran batting against Collin McHugh
0.299 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Collin McHugh
0.299 — Sandy Leon batting against Kendall Graveman
0.299 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kendall Graveman

Although not at the top of the list, Collin McHugh and Kendall Graveman appear to give their opponents a good shot at getting a hit.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.273, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.303, 0.736 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.302, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Archie Bradley.
0.302, 0.733 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.305, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.309, 0.730 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.289, 0.728 — Francisco Lindor batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.276, 0.728 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.
0.299, 0.727 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.308, 0.727 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris.

Jose Altuve is day-to-day with a calf strain. The Darvish versus Altuve match-up also shows what the NN values. Darvish is very good at limiting hits, Altuve very good at collecting hits. It seems the NN finds that at a certain hitting level, the opposition pitcher doesn’t matter that much. Even against someone as good as Darvish, a great hitter like Altuve is still very likely to get a hit in a game.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.302, 0.743 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Archie Bradley.
0.302, 0.739 — Mookie Betts batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.303, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.273, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.309, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.305, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.299, 0.734 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.289, 0.732 — Francisco Lindor batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.308, 0.731 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris.
0.276, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Seth Lugo.

Corey Seager appears to be the consensus top pick on Sunday. As always, you best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2c3rIcQ