Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.345 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan
0.344 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan
0.330 — Yunel Escobar batting against Zachary Neal
0.329 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan
0.322 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller
0.322 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against Williams Perez
0.313 — Trea Turner batting against Williams Perez
0.313 — Kris Bryant batting against Wily Peralta
0.311 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Adam Morgan

Log5 rates the Marlins high against Adam Morgan and the Nationals high against Williams Perez.

The NN produces this list:

0.345, 0.750 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan.
0.314, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Williams Perez.
0.344, 0.747 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan.
0.322, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller.
0.330, 0.744 — Yunel Escobar batting against Zachary Neal.
0.270, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.
0.322, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.313, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Williams Perez.
0.329, 0.731 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan.
0.292, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.

League leading hitters Jose Altuve and DJ LeMahieu get pulled into the list, but the NN for the most part agrees on batters against Morgan and Perez.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.345, 0.755 — Martin Prado batting against Adam Morgan.
0.344, 0.753 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Adam Morgan.
0.314, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Williams Perez.
0.330, 0.747 — Yunel Escobar batting against Zachary Neal.
0.322, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Shelby Miller.
0.313, 0.742 — Trea Turner batting against Williams Perez.
0.322, 0.741 — Dee Gordon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.292, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.329, 0.738 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Morgan.
0.270, 0.736 — Jose Altuve batting against Corey Kluber.

Prado and Realmuto appear to be the consensus picks on Tuesday. As always, your top picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cwa7eA