Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.324 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.316 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake
0.313 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray
0.310 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson
0.298 — Josh Harrison batting against Mike Leake
0.298 — Francisco Lindor batting against Doug Fister
0.297 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson
0.294 — Jean Segura batting against Brock Stewart
0.294 — Adam Frazier batting against Mike Leake

Murphy went 3 for 4 Tuesday night and is back in a tie for the NL Batting Title with DJ LeMahieu, both at .343.

The NN produces this list:

0.326, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.313, 0.744 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.324, 0.742 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.276, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.316, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake.
0.298, 0.733 — Francisco Lindor batting against Doug Fister.
0.310, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.292, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Albert Suarez.
0.285, 0.721 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.281, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Jarred Cosart.

The top four is very similar, but with Jose Altuve appearing in the list.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.326, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.324, 0.749 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.313, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.316, 0.738 — Starling Marte batting against Mike Leake.
0.276, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.298, 0.737 — Francisco Lindor batting against Doug Fister.
0.292, 0.737 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Albert Suarez.
0.310, 0.733 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.281, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Jarred Cosart.
0.285, 0.724 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jharel Cotton.

With the parks, the top four is the same as the Log5, with Marte and Seager switched. It looks like Murphy and Turner are the consensus top choices. As always, your top picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2csfQ1S