Max Scherzer left the game in the top of the fourth inning as something in his leg felt tight. It didn’t look that serious, and Scherzer seemed like he wanted to stay in the game. Washington was not taking a chance, however. He’ll have a week to work on the problem before he needs to pitch.
I was traveling today, and one of my stops was to see my dad at the nursing home, where he was watching the Yankees game. New York won, but Boston beat the Astros which set the playoffs for the AL. The Yankees host the Twins on Tuesday, the winner of that game traveling to Cleveland to face the Indians on Thursday. The Red Sox pick up their series with the Astros in Houston next Thursday as well.
Meanwhile, the Brewers looked like they were going to stay alive with a late 6-4 lead against the Cardinals, but St. Louis scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth to win 7-6. That puts the Rockies into the post-season as the second wild card.
Back in July I thought the Rockies and Diamondbacks could coast to the wild card, but I didn’t think the Rockies would coast that much! Colorado will play in Arizona on Wednesday for the right to face the Dodgers on Friday, while the Cubs travel to Washington to face the Nationals the same day. There are four teams in the hunt that have not won a world series in my lifetime, so maybe another drought will be broken this year.
Congratulations to these then great teams!
It appears there was a protest at the Cardinals game Friday night:
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that demonstrators shouted, “No justice, no baseball!” Police eventually ushered the group out of the stadium.
Yesterday was the 15th anniversary of David Justice‘s last game, so I don’t think he’s coming back anytime soon. Also, the way the Cardinals played down the stretch, there might not have been any baseball in St. Louis for a while.
Is this the day the races are settled? The Red Sox have a 75% chance of clinching the AL East today, either with a win or a Yankees loss. A Red Sox win would also throw home field in the AL playoffs to the Indians. Lance McCuller takes the hill for Houston against Drew Pomeranz. FIP show McCullers extremely unlucky in 2017, with an ERA of 4.01 and an FIP of 3.14. All three-true outcomes for him are very good. Pomeranz goes for his 17th win of the season, which would also make him 42-42 for his career. He owns a reverse platoon split this season, with lefties posting a .373 OBP against him, righties a .313 mark.
At the same time, the Blue Jays send Marcus Stroman against the Yankees and Jaime Garcia. Stroman is finishing the season strong with a 2.73 ERA in September. The Garcia trade worked out poorly for the Yankees as he is 0-3 in eight starts with a 4.82 ERA.
A Colorado win or a Milwaukee loss nabs the second NL wild card for the Rockies, so they also have a 75% chance of clinching a playoff spot. Milwaukee plays the Cardinals in the afternoon, with Junior Guerra facing Luke Weaver. Guerra has been battered around as a starter this season, allowing 16 home runs in 38 innings. Weaver pitched very well in the role, with 65 K and just 10 walks in 50 2/3 innings.
If the Brewers win, the Rockies send their best out one more time to try to secure their post-season slot. The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw against German Marquez. The Cy Young race is close between Kershaw and Max Scherzer, and a big win in Colorado in an important game might push Kershaw over the edge. The win would also guarantee the Dodgers home field if they make it to the World Series. Marquez allowed 16 home runs in 79 2/3 innings since the All-Star break after giving up eight HR in 76 1/3 innings before the break.
Enjoy!
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.334 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon
0.316 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon
0.314 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon
0.314 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Cain
0.314 — Elvis Andrus batting against Daniel Gossett
0.312 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Gossett
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.302 — Manuel Margot batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Christian Villanueva batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Adam Lind batting against Jameson Taillon
Matt Cain makes the final start of his career, as he announced his retirement. He might rise to the occasion and pitch a good game, so you might to avoid the Padres hitters. Villanueva is off to a great start to his career, with a .357 BA and no walks in 28 at bats, five of his ten hits going for extra bases.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.334, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.294, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.314, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.299, 0.734 — Dee Gordon batting against Luke Sims.
0.309, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.731 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.314, 0.730 — Elvis Andrus batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.316, 0.727 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285, 0.721 — Ender Inciarte batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.291, 0.718 — Corey Seager batting against German Marquez.
Murphy is the unanimous first choice, with Trea Turner the consensus second choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
It’s been a rough end of the season for Rougned.
Good luck!
Charlie Blackmon drove in two runs so far Friday evening, setting a record for RBI by a lead-off hitter. The two bring his season total to 101, breaking the record set by Darin Erstad in 2000. Alfonso Soriano drove in 99 from the lead-off slot in 2002. These are number batting in the #1 slot only.
The Rockies lead the Dodgers 7-1 in the fifth inning as they try to secure the second wild card in the NL.
MLB is renaming the World Series MVP Award after Willie Mays:
The World Series Most Valuable Player Award will now be tied to one of the all-time greats of the game: Willie Mays. Major League Baseball announced Friday that the award has been renamed the Willie Mays World Series Most Valuable Player in honor of the Hall of Famer. It will continue to be presented by the award’s longtime sponsor, Chevrolet.
Friday is the 63rd anniversary of Mays making the most famous catch in baseball history — his legendary over-the-head basket catch deep in center field at the Polo Grounds in Game 1 of the 1954 World Series.
“Major League Baseball is thrilled to honor Willie Mays on our game’s biggest stage and in a manner that befits his many contributions to the sport,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. “Since making ‘The Catch’ on Sept. 29, 1954, Willie has been a part of World Series history. This annual recognition will forever celebrate the life and career of a legend of the national pastime.”
That seemed like a stretch to me. Mays never won the award, and he played rather poorly in the World Series. As I opened Twitter when I got home, I saw I was not the only one thinking that way.
No offense to Mays, of course — amazing player, iconic catch in Game 1 of 54WS. But hit 0 HR in 4 WS (one win) while batting .239.
— Tyler Kepner (@TylerKepner) September 29, 2017
Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, and Reggie Jackson all won the award twice, so any one of them would be a fitting candidate. Babe Ruth raked in the World Series, but he is already honored in so many ways.
Mays was one of the greatest in the history of the game, but he doesn’t belong attached to this award. I’m thought for a while that the divisions should be named after great players of the past, and the Willie Mays Division would make a fine name for the NL East or NL West. Mays, Lefty Grove, Ted Williams, Luis Aparicio, Bob Gibson, and Sandy Koufax work fine.
The Phillies moved Peter Mackanin off the field and into the front office:
Pete Mackanin will not return as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2018, the team announced Friday.
Mackanin instead has agreed to an extension to serve as the special assistant to general manager Matt Klentak “for 2018 and beyond,” according to a team statement.
Mackanin, 66, will finish out the 2017 season as the team’s manager. He has gone 172-237 since replacing Ryne Sandberg in 2015.
The Phillies were building toward a better team, and looked poised to take a step forward this season. Instead, the have already lost four more games than last season. It’s time to turn the task over to someone else.
There is not much left to decide on the season. The Yankees are a long shot to catch the Red Sox, the Brewers are a long shot to catch the Rockies. It looks like the Indians will come out on top in the AL, as they hold the tie-breaker with the Astros. The Yankees play a rare Friday afternoon game today, which is perfect timing as the weather in the Northeast just turned cold.
The Pirates face the Nationals with Gerrit Cole taking on Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg makes his final bid for a Cy Young Award, although he appears to be the third choice on this team. Strasburg has an impressive history of strikeouts against the Pirates, with 63 K and 11 walks in 49 career innings.
The Braves send Luiz Gohara against the Marlins, with Giancarlo Stanton looking to reach 60 home runs. Stanton has not faced Gohara before. The Braves, however, have done a good job keeping Stanton in check over the years. By the way, Gohara’s nickname should be “Chief”, since he is constantly facing batmen.
Finally, Zack Greinke returns to Kansas City as the Diamondbacks warm up for the playoffs. This is his fourth time returning to Kauffman Stadium, with his fourth different team. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his three starts, getting knocked around in his last start there in 2014 for five runs.
Enjoy!
The Cubs finish off the Cardinals with a 2-1, extra inning win on Thursday night. A Kyle Schwarber infield single and a throwing error set up a Taylor Davis double for the winning run. The Cardinals are 5-8 in extra inning games, 23-28 in one-run games.
The Cubs won six of their last seven games against the Cardinals. St. Louis had their chance, but this season the rivals from the north won the day. Milwaukee and Colorado are the last teams competing for a playoff spot going into the weekend, the Rockies magic number standing at two.
Giancarlo Stanton went deep twice Thursday night as he makes a push toward his stated goal of 62 home runs. The probability of him accomplishing the feat was diving after his poor performance in Coors Field, but recovered with his two home runs at home. My calculations have that probability at 0.046, or about 5%. That’s not bad. Stanton hit 31 of his 59 homers in Miami this season, so his ballpark doesn’t hurt him.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.329 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles
0.322 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.316 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.311 — Ben Revere batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole
0.307 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara
0.307 — Alex Presley batting against Kyle Gibson
0.306 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzalez
Marco Gonzalez seems to be an extremely hittable pitcher who doesn’t issue many walks. It looks like a good day for the Angels batters.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.309, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.307, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.301, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.335, 0.741 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez.
0.329, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.307, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.294, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.298, 0.732 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.293, 0.727 — Gerardo Parra batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.322, 0.727 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez.
The Rockies hitters make this list while the Angels hitters are down graded. Brandon Phillips is the consensus first choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
Nearly every day, I read of a new CXO title. The latest is Chief Resilience Officer–though I suspect the person’s tongue was deeply planted in his cheek.
It seems everyone. There used to be such simple titles, like VP of Sales, VP of Marketing, VP of Procurement, and on and on and on. The CFO title seems to have been around for some time–at least as long as I’ve been working (which is a fair amount of time). But in recent years, there’s a rush to CXO titles and to getting a “seat at the CEO’s table.”
It strikes me the CEO’s table is getting awfully crowded….. and I wonder for what purpose.
Yeah, I know it’s ego building to sit with all the cool kids in endless meetings about strategy, and the cool things executives seem to talk about. My first exposure to the CEOs table was exciting and I appreciated the visibility. Over time, it became a little less gratifying, I actually started looking for excuses to go on customer calls with my sales people. They were far more fun (And I was the CEO at the time. Hmmmmmmm).
Yes, I’m poking a lot of fun at the notion, but I really wonder some of the underlying reason for this–other than the attention and visibility. In reality, this trend seems to me to actually be strengthening silos. If we need attention and visibility to the CEO, a seat at her table, what does this say about our ability to work collaboratively to achieve shared goals.
Does the race for a place at the CEO table mean that’s the only place we can get the attention and agreement on the things our functions do to contribute to the goals of the business? Is it only at that table that we can align and agree on investments, priorities, and so forth? I watch the discussions of VP’s of Sales Ops or Sales Enablement becoming CXOs and getting seats at the CEO table. These are very important functions, but shouldn’t they really be sitting at the Sales Exec’s table making sure everything the do is aligned with the priorities of the sales organization?
I don’t mean to single these people out, they aren’t the only one’s doing this–I see the trend in many functions, across the organization.
I recognize each of us are proud of our functions/organizations and want to make sure we get the right visibility, attention, investments, and resources to achieve both our and the company’s goals.
But perhaps if we spent more time on doing our jobs, more time collaborating with our counterparts, more time assuring the organization achieves it’s goals—perhaps then we get the visibility and recognition we have earned.
The Yankees post home run dugout interviews are getting funnier. Brett Gardner led off the bottom of the first with an HR to tie the game at one. Ronald Torreyes has a new camera made out of a shoe box. One of the players is using a bat as a boom mike. Gardner got to the interview area, bowed his head humbly, and said something that cracked up Didi Gregorius. Judge followed with his 51st home run, and Torreyes stood on the bench to keep Judge in the shot. Judge cracked up the group as well.
I have to say this Yankees team is having more fun than any Yankees team I can remember.
The Yankees lead the Rays 2-1 in the bottom of the first.
The Indians beat the Twins 5-2 earlier Thursday afternoon, Cleveland winning their 100th game of the season. Their magic number to clinch home field in the AL playoffs is two, as they hold the tie-breaker against the Astros.
The Twins did not score until the ninth inning when Mitch Garver drove in two runs with a triple. I wondered if this was Garver’s first MLB triple, and I was surprised to see it was his third. Garver has nine hits in 44 at bats, and three of those hits are triples. He listed as a catcher, but started in leftfield. I wondered if he had some speed, but looking at his minor league numbers, he appears to run like a catcher. He gets caught too much when he tries to steal, and only knocked out four triples in his 1819 minor league at bats. The triple gods were blessing Garver in his first big league season.
Ned Garver, a pitcher from the 1950s and the only other Garver to play in the majors, also had three career triples.
Craig Edwards publishes the second part of the comparison of the steroid era with today’s game to see if PEDs are increasing home runs. Today he looks at age in 2002 versus age in 2017:
There are a lot more young players now than there were during the PED era. That +8.1% change for players 25 years old an under represents a 44% increase in playing time compared to 15 years ago. While the players likely to be in their prime, from age 26 through age 30, have seen slight decrease in playing time, it’s the league’s oldest players who’ve taken the biggest hit, accounting for 6% fewer plate appearances now.
There’s a pretty good reason for that drop in playing time: the younger players are a lot better than they used to be relative to the rest of the league.
That’s a pretty good indicator nothing is going on league wide. When Bill James studied the issue, his claim was that steroids keep you young. That isn’t happening right now.
I would like to point out, however, that Edwards is comparing two points in time. The post yesterday encouraged me to look at home runs by position more closely. This spreadsheet contains a graph that shows the percentage of home runs by position from 1998 to 2017, the 30 team era. It also covers the end of the PED era. The positions are stacked so the ones most important for defense are at the bottom. It turns out that 2002 was a fairly bad year for defensive positions hitting home runs. The overall story still works, but 2002 was the most extreme year he could have chosen.
It also shows this tendency toward more home runs from catcher, shortstop, and second basemen started around 2011. So it’s not a change in the ball or launch angle, but the continuation of a trend. We should look at age the same way, rather than just picking two points.
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The reality of our professional, business, (perhaps our personal lives), is that we are time poor. Everyone is over-committed, overworked, and overwhelmed. Time becomes their most precious and unrecoverable commodity.
With this as the glaring reality of our own time utilization and that of our customers, I’m astounded at how cavalier we are about how we use time.
From a customer point of view, research report after research report comes back with one of the top issues customers have about sales people: “They waste my time!”
Every sales person I talk to, the number one problem is, “I can’t get customers to take the time to talk/see me!”
If you reflect on it, Return On Their Invested Time becomes a key indicator of our ability to create value with our customers.
Too often, we focus on the Return On Our Invested Time, forgetting that we are getting things backwards. If we are to get great Return On Our Time, it’s only through producing great Return On Their Invested Time.
Peeling that back a little, every choice customers make, perhaps unconsciously, is about how and where they invest their time to get maximum return out of that investment. In deciding to meet with us, they are trading off the return they expect to get from the meeting with you, versus working on their day to day tasks, meeting with people in their company, meeting with their customers, doing email, surfing the web, or taking a break to go to the bathroom and pee.
They are going to invest their time in probably the most urgent thing, secondarily the most important thing.
And too often, because of their past history with sales, perhaps not you, as they look at their choices, spending time with sales people falls to the bottom of the list–according to the data, probably rightfully so. If we are ill prepared, if we talk about what we want to talk about, if we don’t understand the customer and their business, what are they going to get out of the time they invest in us.
Pundits, including me, talk about creating value with the customer. Often, these discussions get pretty esoteric. For example, “What disruptive insights can we bring?”
In reality, the greatest value we can create with the customer is that at the conclusion of every interaction–whether it’s a phone call, a meeting, or an email we’ve sent–they can say, “That’s the very best use of my time that I could have made.”
If all we do is focus on the concept, “How do we maximize the Return On Invested Time in every interaction,” we will have answered the question of value creation with the customer.
What does this mean?
As we think about a call or a meeting we are designing, before we execute the call, do a test–being viciously honest with yourself–“At the conclusion of this meeting, will the customer have considered this a great use of their time?” If we can’t, honestly, answer that with a resounding “Yes!”, then we need to go back to the drawing board.
After each call or meeting, do a quick self assessment, ask yourself, “Would the customer say this was a great use of their time?” Be honest with yourself. Sometimes, if you have the courage, ask your customer for feedback, “Was this meeting the best use of the time you invested?” Listen to their response, probe and understand.
Doing these two things will dramatically improve your ability to engage your customers, creating value, and moving forward in the relationship.
In various past roles, I always made myself available to sales to call on customers. As we planned to call and they discusses what we hoped to accomplish, the final question I’d ask was, “What value are we creating for the customer and is the best use of her time?” If the sales person couldn’t answer that in a compelling way base not on what the sales person wanted to do, but on an honest customer perspective, I’d tell the sales person we weren’t ready for the call.
If you want to create value with your customers; if you want to differentiate yourself from everyone else, if you want to become that trusted advisor; if you want to have the customer welcome your calls and meetings, make sure you are making their choice to invest their time with you the very best choice possible.
The Reds finish their series with Milwaukee as the Brewers need to run the table to have a shot at the second NL Wild Card slot. Coloardo’s magic number is two, so if the Brewers lose today, they cannot outright win the slot in the scheduled season. Sal Romano takes on Brent Suter in a battle of rookies. Romano pitched better on the road this season, 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA, compared to a 4.91 ERA at home. Just three of his nine home runs allowed came away from Cincinnati. Suter is part of a solid Brewers pitching staff, and his strength is limiting walks. In 98 1/3 big league innings he walked just 26 batters. Suter and Brandon Woodruff give Milwaukee a nice pair of young starters heading into 2018.
The Red Sox find themselves in a difficult spot going into the last series of the season, four games hosting Houston. The Astros are one game behind the Indians for best record in the AL, so Houston has a reason to win. The Red Sox keep getting pressured by the Yankees, who are three games out of the division with four games to play. As things stand right now, Houston would face Boston in the ALDS. I suspect the Astros care more about best record than if they play Boston or New York in the first round. If Houston can force Boston into a tie with the Yankees, however, that should benefit them.
Brad Peacock face Eduardo Rodriguez in the first game. Peacock, at 12-2, won more games this season than he did in his previous five. Coming into this season he allowed 1.40 HR per 9 IP, but this year he reduced that to 0.64 HR per 9 IP. Only six of Rodriguez’s 18 home runs came at home this season.
Enjoy!
The Twins lost to the Indians Wednesday night, but the Angels lost as well, and that clinches the second wild card for Minnesota. I saw that they were the first team to go from 100 losses to the playoffs, but going to the playoffs with a win total in the mid 80s isn’t all that fantastic. Every team behind the Twins in the standings is below .500, so the competition was not that stiff. I wonder how many teams went from 100 losses to .500 the next season.
Here’s what I wrote about the Twins in my season preview:
The Twins took a step back in 2016 as the youngsters who impressed in 2015 regressed a bit in 2016. Brian Dozier breaking out as a power hitting second baseman was not enough. Still I like the youth, and it’s up to Paul Molitor and his coaching staff to get them to make adjustments they might have missed in 2016. If there is to be a surprise team in this division the Twins will be it.
Surprise!
Congratulations to the Twins on a great turnaround season. Given their youth, they should continue to improve.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.328 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova
0.314 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Eric Hosmer batting against Daniel Norris
0.309 — Brandon Phillips batting against Dylan Covey
0.304 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris
0.300 — Adam Lind batting against Ivan Nova
0.299 — Melky Cabrera batting against Daniel Norris
0.299 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris
0.298 — Ender Inciarte batting against Dillon Peters
There is a light schedule today as teams go into the final weekend of the season. Log5 likes the Nationals against Ivan Nova.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.328, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.310, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.729 — Eric Hosmer batting against Daniel Norris.
0.314, 0.728 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova.
0.309, 0.727 — Brandon Phillips batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.726 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.298, 0.726 — Ender Inciarte batting against Dillon Peters.
0.283, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Julio Teheran.
0.299, 0.719 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris.
0.299, 0.719 — Melky Cabrera batting against Daniel Norris.
The NN agrees on Murphy as the first pick, with Tuner the consensus second pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
The Rockies win on Wednesday coupled with the Brewers and Cardinals losing means there cannot be a three-way tie this season. The Cardinals could still tie the Rockies if they win their last four games and the Rockies go 0-3, but in doing so they will sweep the Brewers, eliminating Milwaukee. Likewise, if the Brewers tie the Rockies, they will have eliminated the Cardinals.
The Rockies need one win to eliminate the Cardinals, two wins to eliminate the Brewers, or the same number of losses on the other side.
The Cubs beat the Cardinals 5-1 to clinch the NL Central title. With 89 wins under their belts, Chicago will fall far short of last season’s win total. That’s mostly due to a poor start to the season. They were 43-45 at the All-Star break, 45-24 since. Mostly it’s due to a better offense, scoring 4.5 runs per game before the break, 5.8 runs per game since.
Congratulations to the Cubs on their repeat division win!
Michael Wacha starts the seventh inning, pitching an efficient shutout as the Cardinals led the Cubs 1-0. The first six Cubs reach in the seventh, however, and Wacha finally gets pulled with no one out and the Cubs leading 4-1. The Cubs are in a great position to clinch the division right now, and all but end the Cardinals season. This game turned around so fast that the first six reached before a reliever could get ready. Wow. Mike Matheny was just not ready.
The Rockies just beat the Marlins 15-9 in a slugfest at Coors Field that featured 28 hits, 11 for extra bases. The big difference came in the walks, as the Rockies drew 10 free passes and the Marlins none.
The win puts the Massive Tie Scenario on life support. If St. Louis loses to the Cubs tonight it’s over, as the Cardinals would then need to sweep the Brewers to have a shot at tying the Rockies, but then the Brewers would be out. Both St. Louis and Milwaukee need to win their next two games, tonight and tomorrow, to keep the Scenario alive for the weekend.
The Rockies magic number for clinching the second slot is down to three.
Giancarlo Stanton went 0 for 3 with three Ks in the contest as he failed to use Coors Field to try to reach 62 home runs.
The owners approved the group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter buying the Marlins. They will close in a few days.
Matt Cain‘s start on Saturday will be his last:
The Giants’ respected right-hander and longest tenured player held an emotional team meeting prior to Wednesday’s game at Arizona to inform teammates that he intends to retire after the season.
While leaving the door cracked “in case something crazy happens,” Cain said he would not pursue continuing his career with another organization and he expressed pride at seeing the Giants through their most accomplished era in the franchise’s West Coast history.
At the height of his career, Cain would give up a ton of fly balls with very few leaving the park. His fastball fell less that hitters expected, probably due to terrific backspin. That caused batters to hit under the ball rather than making solid contact. Despite that success, he will finish his career with a record below .500.
Craig Edwards at FanGraphs starts a series that looks for evidence in the data that 2017’s offensive surge might have to do with performance enhancing drugs. What he finds is that the big increase in power is coming from defensive positions:
If there were rampant PED use in the same way there was during the steroid era, we might expect to see the same types of wide gulfs that we saw in 2002. Instead, we see a leveling out. If we assume that PED is one of the main causes of increased power, the data suggest that absolutely everyone is on PEDs and that they’re all using those PEDs to power up in such a manner that corner outfielders no longer have a big advantage over second or third basemen. While we commonly talk about the PED era affecting everyone, the era was still one of extremes.
Consider that, in 2017, the top-30 home-run hitters make up roughly 18% of the total home runs and the middle-100 players (with at least 300 PA) make up 27% of the home runs. Back in 2002, the top-30 home run hitters — led by Alex Rodriguez (with 57) and Jim Thome (52) — made up 22% of the home-run totals, with the middle-100 players accounting for 24% of them. Things were more extreme in 2002, which suggests that the changes in 2017 are more likely a product of something that’s affecting the entire league as opposed to one subset of players.
The middle infielders are catching up to the corner outfielders, not both moving in the same direction.
Adam Conley faces Jon Gray as the Marlins finish their series in Colorado. Conley is finishing poorly, with a 9.56 ERA in September, having allowed 24 hits, six for homers, in 16 innings. Gray pitched impressively at home this season, posting a 2.93 ERA.
The Cubs can once again clinch the NL Central title with a win or Milwaukee loss. John Lackey takes on Michael Wacha. Lackey made 29 starts so far this season, the same as he made all of last year. He’s pitched 25 fewer innings in those starts, due to a reduced strikeout rate leading to more hits and home runs. Wacha pitches a must-win game for the Cardinals with a 3.12 ERA at home. He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the Cubs in three starts this season.
The Twins can claim the second wild card with a win against the Indians or an Angels defeat. Adalberto Mejia takes the hill against Danny Salazar in Cleveland. Both own identical 4.48 ERAs. Mejia is the opposite of an innings eater, have pitched just 94 1/3 innings in 20 starts. That’s mostly due to high walk and home run rates. Salazar is similar, although part of his low inning total comes from a few relief appearances. His very high K rate has not balanced his high walk and home run rates.
Enjoy!
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.339 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.333 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.329 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.329 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez
0.325 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.325 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.318 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard
0.317 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman
0.308 — Michael Moustakas batting against Jordan Zimmermann
Jordan Zimmermann is a high hit, low walk pitcher going against a high hit, low walk team. Jose Altuve was held out of Tuesday night’s game due to a bruise, so check to see if he’s playing today.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.329, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.339, 0.748 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.333, 0.745 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Conley.
0.300, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.317, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.329, 0.737 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Conley.
0.325, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.325, 0.735 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
Altuve comes out on top here, but Hosmer and Cain are the consensus 1-2 picks.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
| Batter | PA since Last Hit |
| Jackie Bradley, Jr. | 29 |
| Jorge Soler | 24 |
| Arismendy Alcantara | 24 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 23 |
| Aaron Hill | 23 |
| Adam Rosales | 23 |
| Rougned Odor | 21 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 20 |
| Taylor Featherston | 19 |
| Mark Zagunis | 18 |
| Stuart Turner | 17 |
| Guillermo Heredia | 17 |
| Roberto Perez | 16 |
| Willie Calhoun | 16 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 15 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 15 |
| Dominic Smith | 15 |
| Paul Janish | 15 |
| Chase D'Arnaud | 15 |
| Jett Bandy | 15 |
| James McCann | 15 |
| Cristhian Adames | 14 |
| Ryan Schimpf | 14 |
| Tom Murphy | 14 |
| Nolan Fontana | 14 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 14 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 14 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 13 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 13 |
| Stephen Drew | 13 |
| Lewis Brinson | 13 |
| Chris Coghlan | 13 |
| Justin Smoak | 12 |
| Erick Aybar | 12 |
| Pedro Severino | 12 |
| Nick Ahmed | 12 |
| Robinson Cano | 12 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 12 |
| Ryan McMahon | 12 |
| Johan Camargo | 12 |
| Martin Prado | 12 |
| Jose Osuna | 12 |
| JaCoby Jones | 12 |
| Rafael Bautista | 12 |
| Tyler Collins | 11 |
| Evan Longoria | 11 |
| Scott Van Slyke | 11 |
| Brock Stassi | 11 |
| Orlando Calixte | 11 |
| Danny Ortiz | 11 |
| Trayce Thompson | 11 |
| Andrew Stevenson | 10 |
| Luis Sardinas | 10 |
| Gavin Cecchini | 10 |
| Matt Davidson | 10 |
| Zach Vincej | 10 |
| Carlos Perez | 10 |
| Cody Bellinger | 10 |
| Ryan Rua | 10 |
| Carlos Moncrief | 10 |
| Adam Engel | 10 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 10 |
| Alen Hanson | 10 |
| Norichika Aoki | 10 |
| Kole Calhoun | 10 |
| Andrew Susac | 10 |
| Gregor Blanco | 10 |
| J.P. Crawford | 10 |
Good luck!
