Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.346 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon
0.331 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.325 — Francisco Lindor batting against Bartolo Colon
0.323 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.322 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Anderson
0.319 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.318 — Ender Inciarte batting against Rafael Montero
0.317 — Whit Merrifield batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.311 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson

It’s never a bad day to pick Jose Ramirez, but today should be especially good. He puts the ball in play and Colon batters made contact against Colon.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.359, 0.764 — Jose Ramirez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.322, 0.753 — Dee Gordon batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.311, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.346, 0.744 — Austin Jackson batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.331, 0.742 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.273, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Cole Hamels.
0.318, 0.739 — Ender Inciarte batting against Rafael Montero.
0.323, 0.736 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.319, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.280, 0.731 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jose Urena.

The NN agrees that Ramirez is the best pick. His teammate, Austin Jackson, is the consensus second pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	26
Jorge Soler	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Adam Rosales	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
C.J. Cron	19
Rougned Odor	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Stuart Turner	17
Guillermo Heredia	17
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Paul Janish	15
Sean Rodriguez	15
Jett Bandy	15
Willie Calhoun	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Tom Murphy	14
Chris Young	13
Carlos Gonzalez	13
Anthony Kemp	13
Roberto Perez	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Eugenio Suarez	13
Stephen Drew	13
Rajai Davis	13
Nick Ahmed	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Martin Prado	12
Danny Valencia	12
Pedro Severino	12
Carlos Santana	12
Darwin Barney	12
Stephen Piscotty	12
Jose Osuna	12
James McCann	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Tyler Collins	11
Dominic Smith	11
Brock Stassi	11
Joe Panik	11
Adrian Gonzalez	11
Ketel Marte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Rhys Hoskins	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Rafael Bautista	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Carlos Perez	10
Andrew Susac	10
Andrew Stevenson	10
Thomas Pham	10
Alen Hanson	10
Zach Vincej	10
Matt Davidson	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Carlos Moncrief	10

Good luck!

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