The Blue Jays defeated the Yankees Sunday afternoon 9-5, but Aaron Judge hit two home runs to bring his season total to 48. That took his probability of hitting 50 HR and breaking Mark McGwire‘s rookie record from 0.11 to 0.46. You can see the leap on the chart here.
His previous high occurred after games of July 7th, at a probability of 0.32. His low came after games of Sept. 9th, 0.007. Through July 7th he hit .330/.448/.701, with 30 HR in 357 PA. Between July 8th and Sept. 9th, he hit .186/.350/.362 with nine home runs in 237 PA. Notice that he did not lose his batting eye, telling me that he was either being pitched differently, lost his mechanics, or was hurt. Since the low, .366/.491/1.098 with 9 HR in 42 PA.
I thought the plate discipline was key. He wasn’t swinging at bad pitches, he was missing good ones. That’s an adjustment or healing, and whatever was corrected is just in time for the playoffs.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2fi8Uqw
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