The possible massive tie for the second AL Wild Card slot appears to be dead. It is amazing to me that of the seven teams that had a shot at the wild card two weeks ago, only one, the Twins, was able to rise to the occasion and play decently well. I thought at least three of them would have hung around to the end.
That leaves a possible three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card slot. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning three more games for a total of 86. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.026, down from yesterday. Here is the 86 win scenario:
| Team | Won-lost |
|---|---|
| Rockies | 3-5 |
| Cardinals | 5-4 |
| Brewers | 5-3 |
Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.
For today, the best outcomes would be:
- The Cardinals defeat the Pirates.
- The Brewers beat the Cubs.
- The Rockies fall to the Padres.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xwtmOB
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