The Rockies and Cardinals both lost on Monday. That eliminates all possibility of a four-way tie as the Cubs removed St. Louis from division contention. The chance of a three way tie went up slightly. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning one more game for a total of 85. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.021. Here is the 85 win scenario:
| Team | Won-lost |
|---|---|
| Rockies | 1-4 |
| Brewers | 3-3 |
| Cardinals | 4-2 |
Needless to say, this is not looking good.
Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.
For Tuesday, the best outcomes would be:
- The Brewers beat the Reds.
- The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
- The Rockies fall to the Marlins.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wiq2Dt
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