Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova
0.314 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova
0.310 — Eric Hosmer batting against Daniel Norris
0.309 — Brandon Phillips batting against Dylan Covey
0.304 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris
0.300 — Adam Lind batting against Ivan Nova
0.299 — Melky Cabrera batting against Daniel Norris
0.299 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris
0.298 — Ender Inciarte batting against Dillon Peters

There is a light schedule today as teams go into the final weekend of the season. Log5 likes the Nationals against Ivan Nova.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.328, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.287, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.310, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.310, 0.729 — Eric Hosmer batting against Daniel Norris.
0.314, 0.728 — Howie Kendrick batting against Ivan Nova.
0.309, 0.727 — Brandon Phillips batting against Dylan Covey.
0.304, 0.726 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Daniel Norris.
0.298, 0.726 — Ender Inciarte batting against Dillon Peters.
0.283, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Julio Teheran.
0.299, 0.719 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Norris.
0.299, 0.719 — Melky Cabrera batting against Daniel Norris.

The NN agrees on Murphy as the first pick, with Tuner the consensus second pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jorge Soler	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Rougned Odor	24
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Adam Rosales	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Rhys Hoskins	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Stuart Turner	17
Guillermo Heredia	17
Roberto Perez	16
Pedro Severino	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jett Bandy	15
Evan Longoria	15
Paul Janish	15
J.P. Crawford	14
Nolan Fontana	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Cody Bellinger	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Adam Engel	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Tom Murphy	14
Kyle Seager	13
Neil Walker	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Piscotty	13
Trevor Plouffe	13
Stephen Drew	13
Jose Osuna	13
Jarrod Dyson	12
Orlando Calixte	12
Norichika Aoki	12
Nomar Mazara	12
Martin Prado	12
Justin Upton	12
Erick Aybar	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Johan Camargo	12
JaCoby Jones	12
Ryan Braun	12
Rafael Bautista	12
Brock Stassi	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Rafael Devers	11
Cesar Hernandez	11
Tyler Collins	11
Andrew Susac	11
Carlos Perez	10
Andrew Stevenson	10
Gavin Cecchini	10
Zach Vincej	10
Manny Machado	10
Willy Garcia	10
Carson Kelly	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Elias Diaz	10
Matt Davidson	10
Jesus Aguilar	10
Alen Hanson	10
Gregor Blanco	10
David Peralta	10
Ryan Rua	10
Carlos Moncrief	10

Good luck!

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