Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.308 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Harvey
0.307 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.305 — Corey Seager batting against Nick Pivetta
0.303 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.301 — Justin Turner batting against Nick Pivetta
0.296 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo
0.293 — Manuel Pina batting against Jameson Taillon
0.292 — Chris Taylor batting against Nick Pivetta
0.290 — Hernan Perez batting against Jameson Taillon
0.289 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey
0.289 — Ryan Braun batting against Jameson Taillon

There is a very light schedule tonight, but hitting against Perdomo and Pivetta appears to be a good bet. Dee Gordon is a high BA, low walk player, so his hit average should be high. Batting lead off gives him the best chance at an extra PA as well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.308, 0.740 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Harvey.
0.305, 0.729 — Corey Seager batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.307, 0.725 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.303, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.717 — Justin Turner batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289, 0.708 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.296, 0.708 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292, 0.704 — Chris Taylor batting against Nick Pivetta.
0.289, 0.703 — Ryan Braun batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.276, 0.702 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.262, 0.702 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Doug Fister.

Gordon is the unanimous first choice, with Seager and Peralta tied for second. Peralta is five for eight against Perdomo.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Logan Morrison	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jorge Soler	22
Steven Souza	22
Matt Wieters	20
Richard Urena	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
A.J. Ellis	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Alex Mejia	17
Chris Taylor	17
Ronald Torreyes	16
Joc Pederson	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jorge Polanco	15
Miguel Montero	14
Dustin Pedroia	14
Nomar Mazara	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Jacob Lamb	14
Rhys Hoskins	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Tom Murphy	14
Stephen Drew	13
Taylor Motter	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Yan Gomes	13
Jett Bandy	13
Stuart Turner	13
Rajai Davis	12
Zach Granite	12
Martin Prado	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Jayson Werth	12
Carlos Sanchez	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Buster Posey	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Brad Miller	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kolten Wong	11
Ozzie Albies	11
Brock Stassi	11
Lucas Duda	11
Rougned Odor	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Nick Hundley	11
Adam Rosales	11
Bruce Maxwell III	11
Hanley Ramirez	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Aaron Altherr	10
Anthony Santander	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Greg Allen	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Jordy Mercer	10
Kevin Pillar	10
Max Kepler	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Tyler Saladino	10
Cory Spangenberg	10
Yonder Alonso	10

Good luck!

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