The Rockies reduced their magic number against both the Brewers and the Cardinals on Sunday as the two trailing teams lost and the Rockies won. That makes the chances of a three-way tie between the teams more remote. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning two more games for a total of 86. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.020, down a bit from Sunday morning. Here is the 86 win scenario:
| Team | Won-lost |
|---|---|
| Rockies | 2-4 |
| Brewers | 4-2 |
| Cardinals | 5-2 |
Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.
For Monday, the best outcomes would be:
- The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
- The Rockies fall to the Marlins.
The Cardinals need to sweep the four game series against the Cubs to have a shot at a division title.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xyZjpn
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