Luck of the Cubs

The Javier Baez game tying single in the ninth inning of the game between the Cubs and Brewers serves as a great example of how much luck is involved in baseball. Here is the pitch sequence:

Javier Baez versus Jeremy Jeffress, two out, two on, top of the ninth inning.

Jeffress kept the ball low and out of the strike zone, and got Baez to swing at two pitches over the plate and low, Baez going down almost to his knee on the ground to try to hit them. In other words, Baez was helping out Jeffress by chasing balls out of the strike zone. With the count 1-2, the battery had a conference on the mound to discuss the next pitch. I would say that Jeffress executed the pitch he wanted to throw, as it was in the same location as pitch two.

One could argue that the next pitch should have been high, since Baez had been primed low. Or, the pitch should have been in the dirt, since Baez was going to swing at a low pitch no matter what. Still, this is the kind of pitch you want batters to hit.

So Baez makes contact on the pitch, and grounds the ball to the shortstop side of second. At first I thought it might be an out, but the shortstop was expecting Baez to pull the ball, and was playing in the hole. So no one was there to field it. The Brewers lost the game and likely a shot at a division title because Javier Baez did everything wrong, but wound up with a hit. That my friends, was luck.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xYiDO8