Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.335 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.329 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles
0.322 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.316 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.311 — Ben Revere batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole
0.307 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara
0.307 — Alex Presley batting against Kyle Gibson
0.306 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzalez
Marco Gonzalez seems to be an extremely hittable pitcher who doesn’t issue many walks. It looks like a good day for the Angels batters.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.309, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.307, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.301, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.335, 0.741 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez.
0.329, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.307, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.294, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.298, 0.732 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.293, 0.727 — Gerardo Parra batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.322, 0.727 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez.
The Rockies hitters make this list while the Angels hitters are down graded. Brandon Phillips is the consensus first choice.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xKAAi1
No comments:
Post a Comment