Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.329 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles
0.322 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.316 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.311 — Ben Revere batting against Marco Gonzalez
0.309 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole
0.307 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara
0.307 — Alex Presley batting against Kyle Gibson
0.306 — Mike Trout batting against Marco Gonzalez

Marco Gonzalez seems to be an extremely hittable pitcher who doesn’t issue many walks. It looks like a good day for the Angels batters.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.309, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.307, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.301, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.335, 0.741 — Brandon Phillips batting against Marco Gonzalez.
0.329, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.307, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.294, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.298, 0.732 — Jose Ramirez batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.293, 0.727 — Gerardo Parra batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.322, 0.727 — Yunel Escobar batting against Marco Gonzalez.

The Rockies hitters make this list while the Angels hitters are down graded. Brandon Phillips is the consensus first choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Rougned Odor	25
Jorge Soler	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Adam Rosales	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Evan Longoria	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Rhys Hoskins	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Adam Engel	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Guillermo Heredia	17
Stephen Piscotty	17
Pedro Severino	16
Rafael Devers	15
Jett Bandy	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Tom Murphy	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Nolan Fontana	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Carson Kelly	14
J.P. Crawford	14
Elias Diaz	14
Cody Bellinger	14
Daniel Robertson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Jose Osuna	13
Kyle Seager	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Justin Upton	12
Erick Aybar	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Norichika Aoki	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Rafael Bautista	12
Marcus Semien	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Orlando Calixte	12
Johan Camargo	12
Martin Prado	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Tyler Collins	11
Domingo Santana	11
Cesar Hernandez	11
Brock Stassi	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Andrew Susac	11
Jesus Aguilar	11
David Peralta	10
Dansby Swanson	10
Zach Vincej	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Alen Hanson	10
Matt Davidson	10
Adam Duvall	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Leonys Martin	10
Manny Machado	10
Adrian Sanchez	10
Andrew Stevenson	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Gavin Cecchini	10
Brock Holt	10
Willy Garcia	10

Good luck!

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