Massive Tie Scenarios

Thursday’s results were such that from now on I will report on the possible three-way ties. You’ll still see the probabilities of the five-way AL tie and the four-way NL tie on the spreadsheets, but those are so unlikely in the time remaining and moving in the wrong direction that it is time to stop considering them.

I’m keeping track of the various AL tie probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. For a three-way tie between the Twins, Angels, and Rangers, the most probable outcome has the Twins winning three more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these three teams is 0.016:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	3-6
Angels	6-4
Rangers	6-4

For the second day in a row, the Brewers blew a late one-run lead. The Rockies lost as well, and the Cardinals gained on both teams.

The most likely outcome for a three-way for the second NL Wild Card has the Rockies winning four more games for a total of 86. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.031. Here is the 86 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	4-5
Brewers	5-4
Cardinals	6-4

Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Cardinals defeat the Pirates.
• The Twins fall to the Tigers.
• The Brewers beat the Cubs.
• The Angels win against the Astros.
• The Rangers defeat the Athletics.
• The Rockies fall to the Padres.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2xsUnCn