Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.339 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.333 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.329 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.329 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez
0.325 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.325 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.318 — Chris Taylor batting against Clayton Richard
0.317 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman
0.308 — Michael Moustakas batting against Jordan Zimmermann

Jordan Zimmermann is a high hit, low walk pitcher going against a high hit, low walk team. Jose Altuve was held out of Tuesday night’s game due to a bruise, so check to see if he’s playing today.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.329, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
0.339, 0.748 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.333, 0.745 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.304, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Adam Conley.
0.300, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.317, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.329, 0.737 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.298, 0.736 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Conley.
0.325, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.325, 0.735 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Altuve comes out on top here, but Hosmer and Cain are the consensus 1-2 picks.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	29
Jorge Soler	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Adam Rosales	23
Rougned Odor	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Stuart Turner	17
Guillermo Heredia	17
Roberto Perez	16
Willie Calhoun	16
Rhys Hoskins	15
Sean Rodriguez	15
Dominic Smith	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jett Bandy	15
James McCann	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Tom Murphy	14
Nolan Fontana	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Stephen Piscotty	13
Trevor Plouffe	13
Stephen Drew	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Justin Smoak	12
Erick Aybar	12
Pedro Severino	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Robinson Cano	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Johan Camargo	12
Martin Prado	12
Jose Osuna	12
JaCoby Jones	12
Rafael Bautista	12
Tyler Collins	11
Evan Longoria	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Orlando Calixte	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Trayce Thompson	11
Andrew Stevenson	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Gavin Cecchini	10
Matt Davidson	10
Zach Vincej	10
Carlos Perez	10
Cody Bellinger	10
Ryan Rua	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Adam Engel	10
Anthony Rizzo	10
Alen Hanson	10
Norichika Aoki	10
Kole Calhoun	10
Andrew Susac	10
Gregor Blanco	10
J.P. Crawford	10

Good luck!

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