Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.322 — Dee Gordon batting against Seth Lugo
0.319 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez
0.315 — Elvis Andrus batting against Mike Leake
0.311 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake
0.305 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto
0.303 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Seth Lugo
0.303 — Robinson Cano batting against Martin Perez
0.301 — David Peralta batting against Travis Wood
0.301 — Gerardo Parra batting against Johnny Cueto
0.300 — Alex Presley batting against Daniel Gossett

It looks like the Rangers at the Mariners should produce ample opportunities for hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.322, 0.748 — Dee Gordon batting against Seth Lugo.
0.305, 0.743 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.267, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.294, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luiz Gohara.
0.319, 0.738 — Jean Segura batting against Martin Perez.
0.296, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.301, 0.732 — Gerardo Parra batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.315, 0.732 — Elvis Andrus batting against Mike Leake.
0.311, 0.729 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake.
0.295, 0.728 — Avisail Garcia batting against Collin McHugh.

Gordon is hot, with eight hits in his last three games, and hits in 15 of 16 games he played in September. Blackmon and Segura are tied for consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Logan Morrison	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Steven Souza	22
Jorge Soler	22
Kyle Higashioka	20
Matt Wieters	20
Richard Urena	20
Taylor Featherston	19
A.J. Ellis	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Alex Mejia	17
Ronald Torreyes	16
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Dustin Pedroia	15
Joc Pederson	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Tom Murphy	14
Miguel Montero	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nomar Mazara	14
Taylor Motter	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Yan Gomes	13
Stephen Drew	13
Rajai Davis	13
Stuart Turner	13
Jett Bandy	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Zach Granite	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Ryan McMahon	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Jayson Werth	12
Jose Iglesias	12
Adam Rosales	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Buster Posey	12
Carlos Sanchez	12
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Nick Hundley	11
Jordan Luplow	11
Brock Stassi	11
Matt Chapman	11
Rougned Odor	11
Juan Lagares	11
Max Kepler	11
Hanley Ramirez	11
Ozzie Albies	11
Mitch Moreland	11
Lucas Duda	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brad Miller	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kolten Wong	11
Carlos Moncrief	10
Martin Maldonado	10
Enrique Hernandez	10
Sean Rodriguez	10
Kevin Pillar	10
Welington Castillo	10
Yonder Alonso	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Anthony Santander	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Cory Spangenberg	10
J.P. Crawford	10
Tyler Saladino	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Greg Allen	10

Good luck!

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