Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.353 — Eric Hosmer batting against Brett Anderson
0.344 — Starlin Castro batting against Bartolo Colon
0.344 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Brett Anderson
0.338 — Whit Merrifield batting against Brett Anderson
0.336 — Didi Gregorius batting against Bartolo Colon
0.336 — Melky Cabrera batting against Brett Anderson
0.331 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Bartolo Colon
0.321 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Moore
0.321 — Michael Moustakas batting against Brett Anderson
0.320 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero

Whoever plays second base against Colon today gets the nod. The Yankees and Royals lineups appear to offer ample opportunities for hits.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against James Shields.
0.353, 0.758 — Eric Hosmer batting against Brett Anderson.
0.344, 0.752 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Brett Anderson.
0.321, 0.751 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt Moore.
0.320, 0.748 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.308, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luke Sims.
0.344, 0.746 — Starlin Castro batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.338, 0.744 — Whit Merrifield batting against Brett Anderson.
0.319, 0.743 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt Moore.
0.312, 0.743 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore.

Hosmer is the consensus first choice, with Cain second. Among the Yankees, only Castro makes this list.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Logan Morrison	27
Steven Souza	26
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jorge Soler	22
Richard Urena	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Alex Mejia	18
Stuart Turner	17
Carlos Sanchez	17
Juan Lagares	16
Mitch Moreland	16
Dustin Pedroia	16
Ronald Torreyes	16
Adam Rosales	16
Kolten Wong	16
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Ozzie Albies	15
Joc Pederson	15
Miguel Montero	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lucas Duda	14
Tom Murphy	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Stephen Drew	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Rajai Davis	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Yan Gomes	13
Taylor Motter	13
Jett Bandy	13
Zach Granite	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Adam Duvall	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Greg Bird	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Mark Trumbo	12
Martin Prado	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Robinson Chirinos	12
Carlos Santana	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Teoscar Hernandez	11
Jordan Luplow	11
Nick Hundley	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Brock Stassi	11
Yonder Alonso	11
Hanley Ramirez	11
Travis Jankowski	11
Enrique Hernandez	10
Francisco Lindor	10
Welington Castillo	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Patrick Kivlehan	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Gorkys Hernandez	10
Tyler Saladino	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Sean Rodriguez	10
Anthony Santander	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Kristopher Negron	10

Good luck!

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