Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles
0.354 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles
0.349 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles
0.335 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles
0.331 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman
0.317 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robert Gsellman
0.314 — Raimel Tapia batting against Jordan Lyles
0.312 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman
0.310 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel
0.309 — Ian Desmond batting against Jordan Lyles

Log5 likes the Rockies once again. Who knew that all you needed to get Clayton Richard to pitch well was a cheap, two-year contract extension?

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.357, 0.768 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.349, 0.762 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.354, 0.760 — Gerardo Parra batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.331, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.281, 0.741 — Jose Altuve batting against Garrett Richards.
0.335, 0.741 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.312, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.310, 0.731 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jason Hammel.
0.317, 0.728 — Howie Kendrick batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.303, 0.724 — Elvis Andrus batting against Kendall Graveman.

Just like yesterday, Charlie Blackmon is the first choice, and LeMahieu and Parra are tied for consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jorge Soler	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Lucas Duda	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Mark Trumbo	18
Stuart Turner	17
Ronald Torreyes	17
Juan Lagares	16
Joc Pederson	16
Mitch Moreland	16
Miguel Montero	16
Adam Duvall	16
Adam Rosales	16
Yonder Alonso	15
Paul Janish	15
Nick Hundley	15
Zach Granite	15
Luis Valbuena	15
Jose Bautista	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Jett Bandy	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Daniel Descalso	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Tom Murphy	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Jordan Luplow	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Taylor Motter	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Tyler Saladino	13
Stephen Drew	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Rajai Davis	13
Martin Prado	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Carlos Correa	12
Travis Jankowski	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Matt Davidson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Sean Rodriguez	11
Josh Bell	11
Adam Engel	11
Gorkys Hernandez	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Carlos Beltran	11
Jorge Alfaro	11
Adeiny Hechavarria	11
Todd Frazier	11
Wil Myers	11
Brock Stassi	11
Kristopher Negron	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Drew Robinson	10
Jonathan Schoop	10
Jayson Werth	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Maikel Franco	10
Corey Seager	10
Ben Zobrist	10
Delino Deshields Jr.	10
Logan Forsythe	10
Ryan Braun	10
Danny Valencia	10
Austin Romine	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Trevor Story	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Andrew Susac	10

Good luck!

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