Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.324 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey
0.319 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dylan Covey
0.314 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Dylan Covey
0.313 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Harvey
0.310 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey
0.309 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey
0.298 — Jose Altuve batting against Bud Norris
0.294 — Eddie Rosario batting against Matt Boyd
0.294 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Matt Harvey
0.294 — Adam Lind batting against Matt Harvey

The Mets are doing something strange today where they are starting Noah Syndergaard, but he is only going to pitch an inning. Matt Harvey comes in for the rest of the game (or however long he lasts). So I’m using Harvey in the calculation.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.298, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Bud Norris.
0.324, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.319, 0.732 — Eric Hosmer batting against Dylan Covey.
0.286, 0.732 — Dee Gordon batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.306, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Harvey.
0.314, 0.729 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Dylan Covey.
0.287, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Robert Stephenson.
0.282, 0.726 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.313, 0.726 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Harvey.
0.310, 0.724 — Whit Merrifield batting against Dylan Covey.
0.309, 0.722 — Melky Cabrera batting against Dylan Covey.

Murphy is the consensus first pick.

Given the poor performance of the NN late in the season compared to the middle of the season, I wonder if I should build in a parameter that indicates how far the season progressed? That will be an improvement project for this winter.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jorge Soler	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Kyle Higashioka	20
Mitch Moreland	20
Adam Duvall	20
Jose Bautista	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Luis Valbuena	18
Mark Trumbo	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Ronald Torreyes	17
Stuart Turner	17
Joc Pederson	16
Adam Rosales	16
Daniel Descalso	16
Zach Granite	15
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	15
Adam Engel	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Wil Myers	15
Jett Bandy	15
Ryan Schimpf	14
Jordan Luplow	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Tom Murphy	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Taylor Motter	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Justin Smoak	13
Nolan Fontana	13
Tyler Saladino	13
Stephen Drew	13
Odubel Herrera	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Rajai Davis	13
Willie Calhoun	12
Martin Prado	12
Carlos Correa	12
Ryan McMahon	12
George Springer	12
Pedro Severino	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Maikel Franco	11
Brock Stassi	11
Rafael Bautista	11
Dansby Swanson	11
Carlos Beltran	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Tyler Collins	11
Sean Rodriguez	11
Zach Vincej	10
Kristopher Negron	10
Hunter Pence	10
Jayson Werth	10
Delino Deshields Jr.	10
Danny Valencia	10
Austin Romine	10
Justin Upton	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Anthony Kemp	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Rougned Odor	10
Andrew Susac	10
Adrian Gonzalez	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Guillermo Heredia	10

Good luck!

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