It was an exciting night in the race for the second NL Wild Card. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis got out to big leads, but wound up in close games. The Cubs whittled away the Cardinals lead, and four Cubs runs in the eight made the final score 8-7 in favor of St. Louis. The Brewers jumped out to an early 6-2 lead against the Reds, and held on to win 7-6. Meanwhile, the Rockies cruised to a 6-0 win against the Marlins.
The chance of a three way tie went down slightly. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning one more game for a total of 86. The overall probability of this three-way tie occurring is 0.020. Here is the 86 win scenario:
| Team | Won-lost |
|---|---|
| Rockies | 1-3 |
| Brewers | 3-2 |
| Cardinals | 4-1 |
Needless to say, this is not looking good.
Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation does not account for that. For this tie to even be possible at this point, the Brewers and Cardinals really need to win the next two days, and it would be very helpful of the Rockies lost today. The Rockies are off on Thursday, giving the two trailers a chance to “make up the win.” If that happens, the Brewers and Rockies would be tied going into the weekend, with the Cardinals one game back. The Cardinals could take two of three from the Brewers while the Rockies lose two of three to the Dodgers. If that happens the probability of the tie going into the weekend would be around 14%.
For Wednesday, the best outcomes would be:
- The Rockies fall to the Marlins.
- The Brewers beat the Reds.
- The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2y83oCt
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