Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.359 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard
0.355 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard
0.350 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard
0.336 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard
0.322 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.317 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey
0.316 — Joe Mauer batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.315 — Raimel Tapia batting against Clayton Richard
0.313 — Paul DeJong batting against Homer Bailey
0.310 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey

Richard signed a contract extension yesterday, two years for $6 million. The above list tells you why the money was so low.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.359, 0.773 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Clayton Richard.
0.350, 0.764 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
0.355, 0.763 — Gerardo Parra batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Carson Fulmer.
0.336, 0.743 — Nolan Arenado batting against Clayton Richard.
0.299, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.322, 0.732 — Eddie Rosario batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.294, 0.727 — Jose Ramirez batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.317, 0.726 — Jose Martinez batting against Homer Bailey.
0.310, 0.724 — Yadier Molina batting against Homer Bailey.

It should be a good day for the Rockies and Reds. Any combination of Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Parra should produce the desired result.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Jorge Soler	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Aaron Hill	23
Kolten Wong	20
Alex Mejia	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Ozzie Albies	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Stuart Turner	17
Ronald Torreyes	17
Miguel Montero	16
Joc Pederson	16
Adam Rosales	16
Mitch Moreland	16
Juan Lagares	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Yonder Alonso	15
Paul Janish	15
Adam Duvall	15
Mark Trumbo	15
Nick Hundley	15
Jett Bandy	14
Zach Granite	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Daniel Descalso	14
Tom Murphy	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Lucas Duda	14
Jordan Luplow	14
Nolan Fontana	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Rajai Davis	13
Yan Gomes	13
Welington Castillo	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Taylor Motter	13
Matt Davidson	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Travis Jankowski	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Willie Calhoun	12
Martin Prado	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	11
Jose Bautista	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Josh Bell	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Adeiny Hechavarria	11
Byron Buxton	11
Brock Stassi	11
Luis Valbuena	11
Todd Frazier	11
Gorkys Hernandez	11
Sean Rodriguez	11
Chris Davis	11
Stephen Vogt	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Drew Robinson	10
Tyler Saladino	10
Eduardo Escobar	10
Trayce Thompson	10
Austin Romine	10
Eddie Rosario	10
Alejandro De Aza	10
Kristopher Negron	10
Luis Sardinas	10
John Hicks	10
Nolan Arenado	10
Corey Seager	10

Rosario is due.

Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2w8vtVD