Massive Tie Scenarios

Only two teams involved in the possible tie scenarios were in action on Monday, and the outcomes of both games move the meter a tiny bit more in the direction of a massive tie. The Twins fell to the Yankees 2-1, a game in which Aroldis Chapman recorded a five-out save when Dellin Betances loaded the bases in the eighth inning. Brent Suter continued the great but short starts by the Brewers staff as he and the bullpen combined for a 3-0 shutout of the Pirates.

I’m keeping track of the various AL tie probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning three more games for a win total of 81. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00008:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	3-9
Angels	5-8
Mariners	7-5
Royals	8-5
Rangers	8-5

The Twins need to play really poorly or the Royals and the Rangers need to play very well down the stretch for this to happen. A little more likely is the three way tie between the top three teams, with a probability of 0.008. That’s 100 times more likely than the five-way tie.

The most likely outcome for a four-way for the NL Central and the second wild card has the Cubs winning four more games for a total of 87. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.00025. Here is the 87 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Cubs	4-9
Rockies	5-7
Brewers	7-5
Cardinals	10-3

Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

The Cubs open a four-game series in Milwaukee on Thursday, so the Brewers still control their own destiny.

For Monday, the best outcomes would be:

• The Twins lose to the Yankees.
• The Brewers defeat the Pirates.
• The Royals score a victory against the Blue Jays
• The Cardinals get a must win against the Reds.
• The Cubs fall to Tampa Bay.
• The Angels win against the Indians.
• Texas and Seattle can go either way, a Texas win better for the five-way tie, a Seattle win better for the three-way tie.
• The Rockies and Giants can go either way, with a slight bias towards a Rockies win.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2hfelYc