Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon
0.316 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon
0.314 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon
0.314 — Jose Pirela batting against Matt Cain
0.314 — Elvis Andrus batting against Daniel Gossett
0.312 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Gossett
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.302 — Manuel Margot batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Christian Villanueva batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Adam Lind batting against Jameson Taillon

Matt Cain makes the final start of his career, as he announced his retirement. He might rise to the occasion and pitch a good game, so you might to avoid the Padres hitters. Villanueva is off to a great start to his career, with a .357 BA and no walks in 28 at bats, five of his ten hits going for extra bases.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.334, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.294, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.314, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.299, 0.734 — Dee Gordon batting against Luke Sims.
0.309, 0.734 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.731 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.314, 0.730 — Elvis Andrus batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.316, 0.727 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.285, 0.721 — Ender Inciarte batting against Odrisamer Despaigne.
0.291, 0.718 — Corey Seager batting against German Marquez.

Murphy is the unanimous first choice, with Trea Turner the consensus second choice.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Rougned Odor	29
Jorge Soler	24
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Adam Rosales	23
Adam Engel	21
Stephen Piscotty	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Cody Bellinger	18
Mark Zagunis	18
Elias Diaz	18
Daniel Robertson	17
Marcus Semien	17
Guillermo Heredia	17
Justin Upton	16
Pedro Severino	16
Paul Janish	15
Jett Bandy	15
J.P. Crawford	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Nolan Fontana	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Tom Murphy	14
David Peralta	14
Chris Coghlan	13
Paul Goldschmidt	13
Dexter Fowler	13
Travis Jankowski	13
Jose Osuna	13
Stephen Drew	13
Matt Davidson	13
Orlando Calixte	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Evan Gattis	12
Michael Saunders	12
Martin Prado	12
Taylor Motter	12
Ryan McMahon	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Rafael Bautista	12
Tyler Collins	11
Adam Duvall	11
Brock Stassi	11
Manuel Margot	11
Jesus Aguilar	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Kennys Vargas	11
Drew Butera	11
Michael Freeman	11
Andrew Benintendi	11
Andrew Susac	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Adrian Sanchez	10
Rio Ruiz	10
Andrew Stevenson	10
Gregor Blanco	10
Magneuris Sierra	10
Zach Vincej	10
Brandon Nimmo	10
Jose Abreu	10
Nick Hundley	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Brock Holt	10
Leonys Martin	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Gavin Cecchini	10
Willy Garcia	10
Alen Hanson	10

It’s been a rough end of the season for Rougned.

Good luck!

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