Friday, June 30, 2017

Games of the Day

The Yankees visit the Astros with Michael Pineda taking on Lance McCullers. The Yankees have the third best record in the American League, but are 10 1/2 games behind the Astros for overall best record. Both pitcher have similar walk and strikeout numbers. The big difference between the two is home runs. Pineda allowed 17 home runs in 87 1/3 innings, McCullers allowed six home runs in 81 2/3 innings. Houston and New York are the top two AL team in home runs hit, the Astros leading the Yankees 128 to 122, so the game may come down to which starter is better at preventing the long ball.

The number one AL pitcher in ERA takes on the number four AL pitcher in ERA as the Twins visit the Royals. Ervin Santana faces Jason Vargas. Santana’s 2.80 ERA helped him to a 10-4 record so far and puts him on a pace for 20 wins this season. He owns the best ERA in the AL on the road, 1.50. Vargas pitches his best at home, ranked high in the majors with a 1.92 ERA at home.

Finally, Gray meets Ray as the Rockies versus Diamondbacks moves to Arizona. The Rockies lost eight games in a row to fall six games back in the NL West, and only six games up in the NL Wild Card race. During the Rockies losing streak, the starting pitchers performed poorly, posting a 10.22 ERA, with eight home runs allowed in 37 innings. Jon Gray was not part of that as he makes his first start since April. He’s been recovering from a stress fracture in his left foot. Robbie Ray does allow runs at home, where eight of the 11 home runs against him left the yard. He is looking to finish June with a 4-0 record.

Enjoy!



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Cursed at First?

The Yankees lost another first baseman Friday night, as a prospect’s major league career barely started:

Dustin Fowler, one of the most admired prospects in the Yankees’ acclaimed farm system, had worked his way up to his big moment Thursday night. He had flown from Syracuse for his major-league debut, when waited nearly three hours through a rain delay. He had watched the Yankees send five men to bat in the top of the first, scoring a run, and knowing he would get his first big-league at-bat in the top of the second.

Instead, Rob Refsnyder took that at-bat against the White Sox’s James Shields. At that very moment, Fowler was probably being loaded into an ambulance at Guaranteed Rate Field. There’s no telling when, or if, he will get that at-bat.

The 22-year-old outfielder is out for the season after suffering an open rupture of the patellar tendon in his right knee, the result of banging the knee into the ballpark’s lower right field wall (and, according to manager Joe Girardi, an unpadded metal box that abuts the wall) from chasing Jose Abreu’s foul ball in the bottom of the first. He immediately underwent surgery at Rush University Medical Center as the Yankees proceeded to lose, 4-3.

That’s two prospect who might have helped the Yankees gone for the season.

Fowler doesn’t show up on the Day by Day Database list of Yankees first baseman, because he didn’t bat. As you can see, however, the list is a frustrating one. Only Matt Holliday hit well at the position, and he is out with a viral infection. Chris Carter returns to the team due to the injury, and at least he provides some power. Greg Bird hit poorly and can’t seem to heal from his injuries.

First base should not be a problem. The Yankees have tried to solve the position internally, but maybe now is the time to look outside the organization. In the old days, they would take Albert Pujols off the Angels hands.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.365 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard
0.349 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman
0.322 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard
0.319 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake
0.315 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.314 — Buster Posey batting against Gerrit Cole
0.313 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Josh Tomlin
0.309 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Garza
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Garza
0.308 — John Hicks batting against Josh Tomlin

Turner is 5 for 12 with one walk, one strikeout, and no extra base hits against Richard.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.365, 0.769 — Justin Turner batting against Clayton Richard.
0.319, 0.764 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake.
0.349, 0.749 — Corey Dickerson batting against Chris Tillman.
0.307, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Parker Bridwell.
0.303, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
0.314, 0.739 — Buster Posey batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.315, 0.739 — Jose Ramirez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.309, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Matt Garza.
0.320, 0.731 — Corey Seager batting against Clayton Richard.
0.322, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against Josh Tomlin.

The lists are very similar with Justin Turner topping both.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 32
Franchy Cordero 27
Raul Mondesi 23
Aaron Hill 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Avisail Garcia 22
Eric Fryer 21
Kyle Higashioka 20
Mark Zagunis 18
Allen Cordoba 18
Peter Kozma 18
Ryder Jones 16
David Freese 16
Rio Ruiz 15
Manny Machado 15
C.J. Cron 15
Greg Bird 15
Carlos Gomez 14
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Franklin Barreto 14
Eric Thames 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Mitch Haniger 14
Alexi Amarista 13
Mallex Smith 13
Jordy Mercer 13
Mike Zunino 13
Hyun Soo Kim 13
Dexter Fowler 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Chris Stewart 13
Josh Donaldson 13
Nick Ahmed 12
Dansby Swanson 12
Leonys Martin 12
Sam Travis 12
Brock Stassi 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Delino Deshields Jr. 12
Matt Holliday 12
Brandon Moss 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Starling Marte 11
Orlando Calixte 11
Wilmer Flores 11
Chase Headley 11
Rob Refsnyder 11
Chase D'Arnaud 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Max Moroff 11
Charlie Blackmon 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Tyler Collins 10
Todd Frazier 10
Joey Gallo 10
Patrick Kivlehan 10
Yandy Diaz 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Tom J Murphy 10
Boog Powell 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Eugenio Suarez 10


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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Rethinking Sales Skills And Competencies

Wayne Gretsky has the famous quote describing why he is an all time top performer in the NHL.  I’m sure you know it, but he answered the question about how he managed to perform so well by saying, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is.”  (Yeah, I know this quote has become a cliche, but it is still great!)

Unfortunately, as I talk to executives and sales people alike, particularly around skills and competencies critical to sales success, I get the impression we are focused on “where the puck is.”  That is, most of what we look for in recruiting and train for are classic sales competencies around prospecting, questioning, listening, objection handling, closing, deal management, pipeline, account management, and all sorts of other things.

Fundamentally, they were the same skills and competencies my managers were looking for when I was hired into my first professional sales role.

But the world has changed profoundly in the 30+years since I was hired into that first role.  The rate of change and the complexity involved in that change seems to be increasing–stretching the capacity of everyone to deal with it.

Given this reality, it’s odd that we continue to focus on the same old skills and competencies.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying those skills and competencies are no longer important–they are.  But they are insufficient for dealing with the issues our customers and organizations face today.

While there are great technologies that can help sales people, and things like AI offer great promise.  For the foreseeable future, their primary impact will be to augment the skills critical for success–not replace them.

We need to start equipping our people and organizations with the skills and competencies critical for the coming years.  We need to be looking at:  critical thinking and problem solving, project management, collaboration/team leadership, change management, business management acumen.  We need to build people’s capabilities to be “organizationally savvy,” navigating both the customer and our own organizations effectively and efficiently to align resources, get support, and get things done.  We need to find people who are comfortable with ambiguity and paradox.  We need to recruit and build skills in creativity and curiosity.  We need to look for people that are mentally tough, self directed.  We need people comfortable with technology but not held prisoner to technology.

Likewise, as we look to sales leaders we need to rethink the skills/competencies for them.  Those new skills and competencies for sales listed above are critical for leaders as well.  But on top of these, new leadership skills,  particularly in thinking about and managing complexity, systems thinking, business model innovation, cross functional collaboration/innovation,  coaching/people development, are among those critical for leaders in this new world.

Skating to where the puck is, continuing to focus only on the same skills/competencies we have always focused on is a recipe for failure–for our people, for our customers, and for our organizations.

Today’s approaches won’t get us to where we and our customers need to be tomorrow.

 

Afterword:  We’ve developed several tools to help sales leaders think specifically about the skills, competencies, attitudes and behaviors critical for success.  One is our Sales Competency Model.  Email me at dabrock@excellenc.com for a copy.

 

 



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Thursday, June 29, 2017

Turner Fractured

The Washington Nationals lose Trea Turner for an extended period after he suffers a broken wrist due to a hit by pitch:

The 24-year old shortstop remained in the game and caught a pop-up in the top of the eighth inning, but was replaced in the top of the ninth by reserve infielder Wilmer Difo.

“I didn’t know,” Turner said. “I had tape on my wrist, so initially it didn’t feel that bad. But I went out there and tried throwing. It hurt to lob the ball, but it felt fine when I threw it as hard as I could or basically full speed.

“So I stayed in there a little bit, and then after a little while it started stiffening up on me so I figured I’d get out of there. In a close game, didn’t want to make a double-cut play or whatever it might be. I figured (Stephen) Drew might have a better shot or Difo. They’d have a better shot at playing some defense.”

He’ll probably be out two months. So the Nationals have now lost their two table setters, with Adam Eaton gone for the season. I wonder if the team will move Bryce Harper up to the second slot, at least until Jason Werth returns. Luckily for the Nationals, they built a big lead, so they will likely survive this injury also.



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Michael Fulmer Laughs at Your Juiced Ball

Michael Fulmer allows three runs, two earned, in 8 2/3 innings Thursday afternoon as Detroit beats Kansas City 7-3. Fulmer did not allow a run until the ninth inning, and did not allow a home run in the game. He has now allowed just four home runs in 101 2/3 innings. That will keep him best in the majors among ERA qualifiers at 0.35 HR per nine innings.

Fulmer did change his pitch mix this season, throwing more sinking fastballs and fewer four-seam fastballs. His ground ball and fly ball rates stayed about the same, but the number of fly balls going for home runs is down. Whatever the reason, Fulmer is bucking the trend of higher home run rates.



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Colon Oscopy

The Braves desginated Bartolo Colon for assignment:

Colon, the oldest active major leaguer at 44, was 2-8 with an 8.14 ERA in 13 starts for the Braves after signing a one-year, $12.5 million free-agent contract in November. The Braves will swallow most or all of the remaining salary he’s owed rather than continue to use him as a starter or in a reliever role he seems ill-suited for at this point.

The Braves purchased the contract of left-handed reliever Rex Brothers, who will join the team for Thursday’s series finale against the Padres.

Colon certainly had a long and unusual career. From 1997 to 2005, he was an elite pitcher, 139-82 with a 3.94 ERA. That ERA may seem high, but that was at the height of the high offense era. From 2006 to 2011, he appeared to hang around, going 22-31 with a 4.72 ERA. His strikeouts were down and his home runs were up, but he still showed great control in preventing walks. From 2012-2016 he came back strong, 72-49 with a 3.57 ERA. His strikeouts remained down, but he brought down his home runs and walks almost disappeared. He was suspended for testosterone in 2012, but continued to pitch well after that. That earned him a big contract from the Braves, but age finally caught up with the big man.

He finishes his career with a 235-170 record and a 4.02 ERA.



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No Contact

Corey Kluber struck out 11 Rangers through seven innings,  his fourth consecutive game with at least 10 K. Carlos Gomez was his 11th victim,  and Gomez has now struck out ten times in a row. 

Kluber ties Bob Feller for the Indians record for consecutive ten strikeout games. 

The Indians lead 5-1.



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Happy Monk Pt 8.

Games of the Day

Thursday starts with a good match-up as Andrew Cashner leads the Rangers against the Indians and Corey Kluber. Among pitchers with at least 65 IP, Cashner ranks sixth in the majors in HR allowed per nine inning pitched. All five he allowed came at home. Kluber is very good at keeping the ball in the park as well, and only two of his seven home runs allowed came at home.

MLB Network brings you the Cubs at the Nationals at 4 PM. Jon Lester takes on Joe Ross. Lester allows a batting average nearly 100 points higher on the road than at home, .304 away versus .205 in Chicago. Ross strikes out a high number of batters and walks few, but allowed 12 home runs in 56 2/3 innings, and a ton of hits. He may be a pitcher that is in the strike zone too much. He is in the zone 47% of the time, which is above the league average of 44.7%.

Finally, the Dodgers try to earn a split in the home and home series against the Angels. Clayton Kershaw takes on J.C. Ramirez. Kershaw is locked in a tight race for the NL Cy Young Award with Max Scherzer. Scherzer leads in Tom Tango Cy Young Points, but Kershaw leads in Season Score. Ramirez had a good May, posting a 2.67 ERA. He upped his strikeouts in June, but his hits allowed went up as well, leading to a 6.84 ERA for the month.

Enjoy!



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Judicial Watch

I was watching the Yankees game against the White Sox Wednesday night with some casual baseball fans. They had not seen Aaron Judge hit before. When they saw him hit his 27th home run, they were impressed with the apparent ease of the swing. Judge seems to just swat the ball and it goes out.

Since he continues to be on a HR tear, and because it’s about half-way through the season, I started tracking his probability of setting the AL record for home runs in a season. While a number of NL hitters beat Roger Maris‘s mark of 61 home runs in a season, no AL hitter removed Maris from the league record. The spreadsheet tracking Aaron Judge’s HR progress is here.

I had to decide on an intrinsic HR probability for Judge (HR/Plate Appearance). His current career number is likely too high. Plenty of rookies play great in the first half, then fizzle in the second half. Mark McGwire is a great example. So I took Judge’s career rate from a few days ago and did a 50/50 regression to the league rate, and came up with 0.0534. That puts Judge’s current probability of breaking Maris’s record at .00072, or about 1 in 1400. That’s a good, conservative estimate. We’ll see how well that number bears out over the season.

In regards to the RBI race, the simulator now has Judge beating or tying Nelson Cruz 88.7% of the time.



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Hero Ump

MLB umpire John Tumpane stopped a woman from jumping off a bridge in Pittsburgh on Wednesday:

The bridge was mostly empty at that time of day. Tumpane rushed toward the woman, who appeared calm, and asking what was going on.

“I just wanted to get a better look of the city from this side,” she replied, according to the umpire’s recollection.

“Oh no,” Tumpane said, hooking his arm around hers. “You don’t want to do that. It’s just as good over here. Let’s go grab some lunch and talk.”

“No, no, no,” she answered. “I’m better off on this side. Just let me go.”

“I’m not going to let you go,” he said. “Let’s talk this out. We’ll get you back over here.”

“No one wants to help me,” she repeated. “Just let me go.”

“No, we’re here to help you.”

“You’ll forget me tomorrow.”

“I’ll never forget you,” he said. “You can have my promise on that.”

It took a while and a lot more cajoling, but Tumpane and others were able to restrain her until help arrived. He stayed positive and brought her back from the brink. He should get a pass on bad calls for a while.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.333 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson
0.311 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kyle Gibson
0.311 — Justin Turner batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.311 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jameson Taillon
0.308 — Jon Jay batting against Joe Ross
0.307 — Yadier Molina batting against Patrick Corbin
0.303 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Patrick Corbin
0.302 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin
0.302 — Jose Ramirez batting against Andrew Cashner
0.301 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson

I haven’t see Bogaerts high on the list in a while. This June seems to be an all or nothing month for him with 10 multi-hit games, and nine oh fors. In general, it looks like a good day to pick a hitter from the Red Sox or the Cardinals. Molina own the longest current hit streak at 14 games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.333, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.297, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jon Lester.
0.295, 0.740 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.311, 0.737 — Justin Turner batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.311, 0.736 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.302, 0.733 — Jose Ramirez batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.311, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.301, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.720 — Yadier Molina batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.288, 0.716 — Michael Brantley batting against Andrew Cashner.

Bogaerts makes the top of this list as well, making him the unanimous pick. Murphy was just off the other list, tied for 11th. Like most of the Twins, Gibson pitched better on the road this year, allowing a .364 BA at home, .265 away. Both BAs in those situations are still small sample sizes. Murphy is 1 for 6 career against Lester as he tries to extend his hit streak.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 32
Franchy Cordero 27
Aaron Hill 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Avisail Garcia 22
Kyle Higashioka 20
Peter Kozma 18
Mark Zagunis 17
Gregor Blanco 17
David Freese 16
Ryder Jones 16
Eric Fryer 16
Greg Bird 15
C.J. Cron 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Allen Cordoba 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Mitch Haniger 14
Eric Thames 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Alexi Amarista 13
Dexter Fowler 13
Mike Zunino 13
Hyun Soo Kim 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Stuart Turner 13
Brock Stassi 12
Nomar Mazara 12
Delino Deshields Jr. 12
Mallex Smith 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Leonys Martin 12
Sam Travis 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Matt Holliday 12
Justin Upton 11
Orlando Calixte 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Chase D'Arnaud 11
Danny Ortiz 11
Max Moroff 11
Carlos Gomez 11
Starling Marte 11
Manny Machado 11
Yandy Diaz 10
Tom J Murphy 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Wilmer Flores 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Ruben Tejada 10
Chase Headley 10
Charlie Blackmon 10
Boog Powell 10
Tyler Collins 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Randal Grichuk 10

Good luck!



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Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Stop All This Nonsense About Value Add!

There’s a fascinating discussion about the various dimensions of “value” driven by Deb Calvert’s article on Why Prospects Are Buying From Your Competitors.  Here’s the link to the discussion, be sure to look at it.

But there is a part of the discussion that really bothers me, it’s about the concept of Value Add.

First, all of us have been raised to think about and sell our Value Add.  It’s become second nature to every sales person.  It’s all those extra things that we “add” to the basic value the customer expects.  “If you buy from me, here are all the extra things we ‘toss in’ for free……”

Too often, however Value Add becomes a distraction, rather than focus on value we focus on the Value Add—those extra things.

I think the concept of Value Add is flawed and our focus on it distracts us from truly serving the customer.

First, we have to think, “What is value?”

The answer to that is not some abstraction, but it is very specific.  The customer defines value and what they value.  We can’t define it for the customer, our job is to understand what they value and then to present what we do in the context of what they value.

If you think about this, you can start to see the problem with the idea of Value Add.  It’s all those extra things–but it’s driven by what we think is important and adds value, not by what the customer values.  We can’t define value, hence we can’t create those things that add value.

Value always comes back to the customer.  If it’s something they don’t care about, it’s not value.  In fact it’s cost–more on this later.

You can begin to see the silliness of value add:  “You have me as a dedicated sales person to your account,  we are constantly innovating and leading in new product development, I take you out to dinner and play golf with you at least once a quarter, I send you and your kids birthday cards, I’ll give you my home number if you have problems…..”  Yes, the things, the extras that we think should be important and get us “extra credit points” with the customer can range from the serious to the silly.

More importantly, by definition, they don’t address what the customer values–so they are a distraction.  They distract both the customer and us from understanding what the customer really values.

Moreover, every time we engage the customer in a discussion of our value add, we are adding to their “buying burden.”  Ultimately, this added value also creates added cost.  (Nothing we do in added value is free–it costs something, either real dollars or our time–which can be translated into real dollars).

As a customer, when sales people start talking about added value, my response becomes, “That value add is not important to me, but since that’s something you provide as an ‘extra’ if we do business with you, please remove it, and reduce your price.”  (It’s huge fun seeing sales people deal with that objection.)

You can see the concept of Value Add, really becomes meaningless.

We do ourselves and our customers greater service and create greater value by focusing on understanding what they value, then demonstrating how we deliver that value in our solutions.  And how we deliver it better than any other alternative.

This is not trivial.  Customers don’t necessarily understand what they value.  We have the opportunity to help them understand this, help shape what they value, help them better define what value means for them.  This is part of “Value Creation.”

But that’s another post 😉

Let’s focus on what the customer values!  We don’t do a great job at this, but this is what they care about.

 

 



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Wednesday, June 28, 2017

The Ball is Not a Drag

My measuring the change is velocity from time a ball leaves a pitcher’s hand to the time it crosses the plate, one can calculate the drag coefficient of the ball. That correlates to home run distance.

In total, the changes in ball drag explain about 25 percent of the variation in the ratio of home runs to fly balls over the last four years.2 Wind and weather can also influence drag, and although I controlled for those when I calculated the league-wide numbers, I also double-checked my analysis by looking only at Tampa Bay’s stadium, which is indoors and air conditioned. In the Rays’ home park, I found an even stronger correlation between home run rates and the ball’s drag coefficient.3 It doesn’t exactly come as a shock, but this is clear confirmation that air resistance influences home run rates.

I also found a significant decrease in the drag on the ball in general over the past few seasons, with the MLB-wide average drag coefficient dropping by about 0.01 from 2015 to 2017.4 That might not sound like much, but Nathan’s calculations show that even a change that small can add up to 5 feet of distance on a well-hit fly ball,5 which in turn would be enough to make 10 to 15 percent more balls leave the yard in a given season.

Of course, a ball that slows down less probably helps pitchers strike out batters. That’s what we are seeing, more home runs, more strikeouts, fewer other hits.

Hat tip, BBTF.



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Hwang Goes Long

Jae-gyun Hwang goes deep in his first MLB game, his solo shot in the sixth giving the Giants a 4-3 lead over the Rockies. Hwang is the first South Korean to play for the Giants, and the television networks in Korea changed their schedules to show the game. The Giants appear to have a lot of faith in Hwang, as he starts his career batting fifth.



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Anthony Young Passes

Former pitcher Anthony Young died of a brain tumor at the too young age of 51.

Teammates say he was known for his dignity and grace, characteristics he demonstrated through what his career is remembered for: losing 27 consecutive decisions between the 1992 and 1993 seasons, the longest streak in major-league history.

He died on the anniversary of his 24th consecutive loss on June 27, 1993, which set the major-league record.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Here is the winless streak, line by line. Note that during the streak, Young saved 16 games, so it’s not as if he had no success in the stretch. He was a low strikeout pitcher, however, and a 4.37 ERA in the pre-high-offense era was not that good. There was bad luck, but some poor pitching as well. Left-handed batters hit him hard, and teams put as many lefties as they could against him.

Still, he spent six seasons as a major league pitcher, and earned a great deal of fame as someone who endured a very rough stretch of pitching. It’s a better career than most players experience.



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Spirited Away

Miguel Montero is a Cubs catcher no more:

The Chicago Cubs have designated catcher Miguel Montero for assignment, according to multiple reports. This comes just hours after the backup blamed the Nationals’ seven stolen bases in four innings on Jake Arrieta’s inability to control the running game.

“The reason why they were running left and right today because they know he was slow to the plate,” Montero said. “It really sucked because the stolen bases go to me, and when you really look at it, the pitcher doesn’t give me any time.”

Anthony Rizzo didn’t like that, and it appears, neither did the front office. Montero still contributes at the plate, so he will probably catch on with another team.



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Game of the Day

The Rangers and Indians continue their series with Yu Darvish facing Trevor Bauer. Darvish’s ERA on the road is over a run and a half better at home. He allowed just four of his 13 home runs away. Bauer is one of a number of pitchers this season who is making me doubt the value of strikeouts as a hit reducer. Bauer’s ERA stands at 5.53. His FIPs put his ERA in the high 3.00s, as his strikeout rate is great, while his walk and HR rates are so-so. He should be able to withstand those, but batters are hitting .270 against him, and nine of his 14 home runs have come with men on base. In fact, it is very difficult to put a runner on base against Bauer, but once a base is occupied, the flood gates open.

Enjoy!



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Triple Crown Watch

Aaron Judge sits atop all three triple crown categories in the Amercian League today. One category he appears to have a very good chance of winning is the RBI crown. A few years ago, I wrote a simulator to calculate the probability of one player finishing with more RBI than another, given their current RBI total and their likely remaining plate appearances.

The program constructs a model of the last three years of situational data (2015-2017 in this case). For each base situation, it calculates the probability of the batter being in that situation in a given PA, and the average number of RBI for the player in that situation. For each remaining plate appearance, a random number is used to select the base situation, and the number of RBI per PA for that situation is added to the total. This is repeated for 10,000 season, and the number of wins for each player is recorded.

Running this for Judge against Nelson Cruz, currently second in the AL in RBI with 58, Judge wins 85.5% of the time. Judge averages 123 RBI per simulated season, Cruz 109. Judge’s high season was 166 RBI, his low 89 RBI. His first quartile came in at 104, his third quartile at 143. So by random luck, Judge could do very well or very poorly the rest of the way, but he will likely drive in well over 100 runs barring injury.

My own opinion is that Judge will have a tough time holding off Jose Altuve in the batting average race.



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Speed Stats

With the publication of StatCast Sprint Speed Leader Boards, FanGraphs looks at how sprint speed relates to other statistics. It correlates most strongly to base running skills, which is really no surprise.

I really like the graph at the top of the leader board, however, showing the distribution of sprint speed by position. Centerfielders are the fastest, with outfielder generally faster than infielders. The leftfield versus rightfield comparison is very intersting, with the speed of leftfielders having a wider distribution (higher standard deviation?) than rightfielders. I suspect this has a lot to do with the home park. The Yankees want a very fast outfielder in left, the Red Sox want the fast player in right.



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Narrative Fail

I watched the last few innings of the Cubs game against the Nationals on MLB Network Tuesday night. Almost all the discussion I heard was about the Nationals bullpen. The crew pointed out that Nationals window for winning was small because of all the free agents leaving in the next few years (as if they cannot ever be signed or replaced), and that the Nationals owed it to the players and fans to fix the bullpen. Yet, as I watched Max Scherzer pulled after six innings, each reliever that entered the game seemed to have a lot going for them. All appeared to have decent strikeout numbers and good walk totals. Blake Treinen was the worst, but his ERA appears to be a bit higher than his three-true outcomes would indicate. The group proceeded to pitch three hitless innings with one walk and one strikeout, without allowing a run.

Relief pitchers individually are extremely susceptible to luck, good and bad. It takes a lot of will power for a manager and a GM to keep trotting out the same relievers, to resist calls for change. Sometimes, it takes a while to figure out the right roles for pitchers. Maybe when a team is 13 1/2 games up in their division, the bullpen isn’t as much of a problem as it appears.

I know, you can’t win in the post season without a good bullpen. But you can’t win in the post season without good offense or good starting pitching either. Of the three, the bullpen would be the least of my worries.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.327 — David Peralta batting against Adam Wainwright
0.318 — Jose Pirela batting against Bartolo Colon
0.317 — Cory Spangenberg batting against Bartolo Colon
0.316 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach
0.315 — Brandon Phillips batting against Luis Perdomo
0.314 — Ender Inciarte batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Howie Kendrick batting against Felix Hernandez
0.313 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach
0.311 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ivan Nova

Peralta is a name often in the top ten but seldom at the top. His high OBP is due mostly to his batting average, as he only drew 18 walks this year. He’s facing Adam Wainwright on the road, where batters hit Wainwright hard this year.

Also, Kendrick and LeMahieu are battling injuries, so watch to see if they are actually in the lineup tonight.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.310, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against John Lackey.
0.327, 0.752 — David Peralta batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.316, 0.742 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ty Blach.
0.312, 0.742 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ty Blach.
0.315, 0.741 — Brandon Phillips batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.314, 0.740 — Ender Inciarte batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.311, 0.737 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ivan Nova.
0.303, 0.732 — Buster Posey batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.313, 0.731 — Matt Kemp batting against Luis Perdomo.

Murphy heads the list once again. He currently owns an 11-game hit streak. Peralta is the consensus pick.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter PA since Last Hit
Michael Freeman 32
Franchy Cordero 27
Aaron Hill 23
Raul Mondesi 23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 23
Kyle Higashioka 20
Miguel Sano 19
Peter Kozma 18
Avisail Garcia 18
Matt Davidson 17
Brandon Drury 16
Gregor Blanco 16
Eric Fryer 16
C.J. Cron 15
Rio Ruiz 15
Greg Bird 15
Emilio Bonifacio 14
Gregory Polanco 14
Tommy Joseph 14
Ryan Schimpf 14
Lewis Brinson 14
Mark Zagunis 14
Cristhian Adames 14
Stuart Turner 13
Dexter Fowler 13
Allen Cordoba 13
Ryder Jones 13
Chris Coghlan 13
Alexi Amarista 13
Leonys Martin 12
David Freese 12
Matt Holliday 12
Nick Ahmed 12
Nolan Fontana 12
Danny Ortiz 11
Brett Gardner 11
Kennys Vargas 11
Seth Smith 11
Josh Bell 11
Trayce Thompson 11
Max Kepler 11
Orlando Calixte 11
Kevin Plawecki 11
Chase D'Arnaud 11
Stephen Vogt 11
Starling Marte 11
Adrian Gonzalez 10
Benjamin Gamel 10
Matt Olson 10
Ruben Tejada 10
Eric Thames 10
Tyler Collins 10
JaCoby Jones 10
Carlos Gomez 10
Hyun Soo Kim 10
Ryan Zimmerman 10
Tyler Kelly 10
Luis Sardinas 10
Jared W. Hoying 10
Boog Powell 10
Brock Stassi 10
Kyle Seager 10
Mitch Haniger 10
Scott Van Slyke 10
Yandy Diaz 10

Good luck!



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Sales Managers Need Coaching And Development Too!

Virtually everything one reads about driving sales performance and productivity focuses on the sales person.  1000’s of books and articles provide endless advise to help improve sales people skills.  Billions are spent in training and skills development—all focused on the sales person.  Billions are spent on tools–again all aimed at the sales person.

Increasingly we are recognizing the impact that managers have on individual and team performance.  There’s a lot of data about the impact of disciplined approaches to coaching on sales performance.  Win rates are much higher comparing those managers having a disciplined approach to coaching versus those that provide no or informal coaching.

Likewise, revenue attainment, quota attainment, virtually any measure we have shows how front line sales managers have huge impacts on sales performance.

So much of what we look at in sales enablement focuses on enabling sales people—but there is scant discussion about this for sales managers–particularly front line sales managers.

There seems to be a feeling that just because they have the title of “manager” they must know how to do the job.

Recently, I conducted a round table discussion with managers from a number of companies.  Some were experienced managers, some were relatively new.  None of them had any training on their roles as managers, all had been tossed in and expected to learn through osmosis.  Few had any coaching from their managers–most discussions focused on forecasting (is there anything else that managers ever talk about?).  There were discussions about problems–problem people.  Discussions about overall organizational performance, and programs du jour to get performance back on target.

When I asked the group if they had any coaching from their managers, less than 20% replied they had.

Front line sales managers represent the highest leverage we have in driving individual and team performance.  We know all our money invested in training is wasted unless the front line sales managers is coaching and reinforcing things on an ongoing basis.  We know unless they are recruiting and onboarding the right people, unless they are setting and managing performance expectations, the organization won’t perform.

But how do managers learn about these things?  Where do they learn about why this is important, what do do with who, and how to be most effective?

Just because they have the title of “manager” doesn’t reduce the need for training, development, and ongoing coaching.  Even as a top “C-level” exec, I’ve always learned from the training I may have gone through and actively sought coaching from my manager–in a few cases this meant members of the board.

For front line managers this is even more important.  If we expect them to maximize the performance of their teams, we have to do everything possible to help them be successful–maximizing their own performance.

Front line manager training, development, coaching has a huge payoff–it enables these managers with the skills, knowledge, and tools to drive performance in the organization.

It’s time top sales execs started to recognize this.  It’s time to start focusing on the development of these managers.

If we aren’t making these investments, how do we ever expect to have the investments we make in our sales teams pay off?

What are you doing to develop and coach your front line sales managers?

 



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Tuesday, June 27, 2017

3 Tips to Converting a Tub to a Shower

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Converting a bathtub into a shower is not as difficult as you may think. If you don’t use your bathtub for bathing, why not convert your old bathtub into a walk in shower? Here are 3 tips on converting a tub to a shower.

Determine Spacing & Placement
A bathtub to shower conversion is easiest when you situate your new open shower in the space left behind by your bathtub, since your drain lines and water supply will already be in place. Moving plumbing can add significant cost to the project, plus require bringing in a plumber.

Spacing Required for a Walk In Shower:

  • At least 30 inches by 30 inches of floor space.
  • At least 80 inches in height.
  • At least 15 inches between the side of the toilet and the shower wall.
  • Or at least 21 inches between the front of the toilet and the shower wall.
  • If you plan to install a swinging door, make sure to account for the swing. Source: BudgetDumpster

Waterproofing and Drainage
Properly sealing the shower floor from water leaks will help protect your home from problems associated with water leaks, like wood rot, drywall damage and mold. Hot mops are prepared onsite and are the best way to waterproof the shower pan.

A standard drain may not be sufficient to stand the test of time. To ensure your shower remodel lasts for many years, select a high quality and durable drain. Source: Angieslist

Which Type of Shower Works Best for Your Space?
Now that you have some ideas about what you want your shower to look like, you’ll want to consider the best type of shower to install in your bathroom.

Shower stalls
All-in-one shower stalls that can be added to an existing tub-sized space can make your job easier. Many options exist with built-in ledges and shelving; some even have seating areas. The stalls typically include a curb to contain water and the option of installing any type of door you wish — or even just using a curtain.

Tiled shower curbs
A tiled shower created in the existing wall space usually necessitates a curb or ledge that will hold the door and keep the water inside the shower. The curb should be tall enough to contain moisture and short enough to step over easily. Curbs should also be polished and have smooth edges to reduce injury.

Curbless showers
Showers with no lip to contain the water make it much easier to access the shower, especially for the elderly or disabled. But beyond that, curbless showers offer a particular open look that is appealing and modern. The curbless style can also save you a little space if you’re making the most of a small area.

The issue with a curbless shower, of course, is the difficulty of containing the water. This problem can be minimized by choosing a shower screen — essentially, a pivoting glass door — and a directed showerhead that keeps the flow of water moving away from the rest of the bathroom. Source: HomeAdvisor

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

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Q & A: How Do I Use My Steam Bath For The First Time

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

So, you’ve taken the plunge (so to speak) and purchased your very own steam shower. Perhaps you’ve opted for a pre-fabricated, modular type that’s ready to use as soon as the pieces are properly secured and sealed. Or, perhaps you’ve splurged on a complete custom steam room. Whichever course you’ve followed, you can now have a personal spa experience any time you feel like it.

Even though you have the user instructions that came with the steam shower unit, and advice from either our support technicians or your own contractor, you may be wondering how exactly you should use your steam shower for the first time.

Best tips for getting most enjoyment out of steam shower.

Begin by ensuring that your body temperature is at room temperature or cooler. Then, turn on the steam function. Sit back on the bench and soak up the warm steam for no more than 30 minutes. Afterwards, you can cool off by stepping out of the steam shower unit. Or, you can stand under the cool spray of the water. The key to enjoying the whole experience is to move gradually from one step to the other. Don’t shock your system by jumping into hot steam or standing under cold water at the end.

combo steam shower and bathtub

Did you opt for a combination steam shower-whirlpool tub? Lucky you! You have the option of switching at will between a relaxing steam shower and soaking in a luxury steam bath. As with the steam shower, make sure your body is not already too warm before slipping into the whirlpool tub. The key is to always make sure that you don’t overtax your circulation. “Used properly, a steam bath will help to overcome the stresses of everyday life, to relax and recover, and to gain new strength and improve general physical and mental well being” .

Do you have questions about how to use your steam shower or whirlpool tub? Ask us!

Contributed by: Perfectbath.com steam shower experts

The post Q & A: How Do I Use My Steam Bath For The First Time appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.



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The 200 K Hitter

Aaron Judge is on a pace to strike out 200 times in the 2017 season. In 74 Yankees games, he struck out 92 times, or 1.24 K per team game. Over 162 games, that would be 201 strikeouts.

Judge also collected 86 hits, 1.16 per Yankees game. Over 162 games, that would be 188 hits. The most hits by a batter with 200 strikeouts in a season belongs to Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis. Both collected 150 hits. Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, the year he set the record. Davis struck out 208 in 2015, the year he equaled the record.

Judges strikeouts are not slowing down. I thought maybe as he fought for a triple crown he might start making more contact, but June is not over and is already his highest strikeout month of the year. High strikeout players are supposed to trade singles for home runs. They are not supposed to hit for a high average. Miguel Cabrera was able to win the triple crown by reducing his K rate. Fans used to think Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle struck out too much, but they produced high batting averages as they struck out around 100 times a season, not 200 times. Judge is breaking the mold of what a power hitter can be.



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Games of the Day

The Cubs against the Nationals features the number two and number four ranked pitchers in ERA since 2014. Jake Arrieta ranks second with a 2.67 ERA, Max Scherzer ranks fourth with a 2.84 ERA. Scherzer pitched better in terms of walks and strikeouts, but Arrieta allows many fewer home runs.

The Cardinals send Carlos Martinez against the Diamondbacks and Taijuan Walker. Martinez’s record of 6-6 does not reflect his excellent ERA of 2.87. In 100 1/3 innings he struck out 110 batters while walking just 35. He pitched poorly on the road, however, where the majority of his walks and home run were allowed. Walker gets roughed up at home, despite five walks in 25 2/3 innings. It’s all about power, as half of the 26 hits he allowed in Arizona went for extra bases.

Enjoy!



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Unboxing Dark Souls: The Board Game by Steamforged Games





I've never been a huge fan of the Dark Souls video games (I prefer fun to frustration usually!) but some might remember I tried the demo of this board game adaptation at Salute a couple of years ago and really enjoyed it, I love co-op games in general. I'm usually a bit wary of these miniature games on kickstarter, I feel a lot are sold more as miniatures with some token rules. Steamforged however are a well established gaming company with the popularity of their flagship game, Guild Ball over the last few year. Sadly I haven't got a group together yet to play it so this will just have to be a contents review!

First up with all kickstarters, did they deliver with their promise? The original shipping estimate was April and I got it in May so that is an acceptable tolerance level, congrats guys! This is only phase 1 so there is still more to come but this is everything they initially promised. Let's see what we get shall we?

The box is bulky as most miniature games are:


Opening it up you're immediately greeted by the iconic death screen from the video game.


Under that we have the standard set of cards, the card stock is good quality and the cards are very clear with no tiny text (which I appreciate as I'm forever having to read out cards for my parents with some games!)



A large cardboard box might contain some miniatures?


It does! A bevy of bosses! The base game comes with 2 main bosses (The Dancer of the Boreal Valley and Dragon Slayer Ornstein & Executioner Smough) and 4 mini bosses (Gargoyle, Titanite Demon, Winged Knight and Boreal Outrider Knight) Also a aset of wooden subes for recording information on character sheets (which have recessed slots for them)


The sculpts are good and you can see how big they are.


Another cardboard box contains the rest of the miniatures (the 4 heroes as well as 16 lesser enemies)


And here are the intrepid heroes that the players can choose from.


Next up perhaps the most important part of any game, the rule book. A bad rulebook can ruin a game. This one is A4 in full colour and as far as I can tell from flicking through it is well presented.


Cards, rulebook, miniatures....what else does every kickstarter game need? Tokens! These come on the standard pop out sheet complete with player equipment sheets (that look awesome, an area where I feel the likes of Zombicide skimped slightly.


Finally we have the board tiles 9 of them, double sided.


I'm impressed with the quality of the game, the components all look to be well produced and thought out (I love the hero cards and wooden blocks system, so much better than the flimsy card sheets you usually get with these type of games)

The game was £80 on Kickstarter with £75 early bird pledges and is available from the usual retailers right now for £100. Shipping was £20 on kickstarter (which I felt was a little high) so it comes out pretty much the same.


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