Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
Today is the last day to start a streak and hope to finish by the end of the season. There are 29 days scheduled in the rest of 2017 so you would need to successfully double down on 28 of those days. Any kind of tie to determine a division winner or wild card would extend the regular season.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.347 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Brett Anderson
0.344 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen
0.338 — Trey Mancini batting against Brett Anderson
0.336 — Welington Castillo batting against Brett Anderson
0.336 — Timothy Beckham batting against Brett Anderson
0.331 — Adam Jones batting against Brett Anderson
0.322 — Manny Machado batting against Brett Anderson
0.314 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett
0.312 — Brandon Phillips batting against Martin Perez
0.309 — Caleb Joseph batting against Brett Anderson
Log5 rates batters on the Orioles high due to the presence of Brett Anderson on the mound for the Blue Jays. This season, Anderson allowed a .336 BA and a .394 OBP. His hit average is still being regressed toward the mean since he has yet to reach 200 batters faced this season, but even with that it’s a poor .291.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.344, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
0.347, 0.755 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Brett Anderson.
0.338, 0.745 — Trey Mancini batting against Brett Anderson.
0.295, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Brent Suter.
0.336, 0.740 — Timothy Beckham batting against Brett Anderson.
0.336, 0.738 — Welington Castillo batting against Brett Anderson.
0.314, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.331, 0.735 — Adam Jones batting against Brett Anderson.
0.305, 0.735 — Dee Gordon batting against Jake Thompson.
0.272, 0.734 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zachary Godley.
Altuve, as usual lately, comes out on top in the NN, tied with Schoop for consensus first pick.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wyjamr
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