Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Moore
0.319 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd
0.316 — Melky Cabrera batting against Matt Boyd
0.313 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd
0.311 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman
0.310 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto
0.307 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Boyd
0.306 — Gerardo Parra batting against Johnny Cueto
0.300 — Michael Moustakas batting against Matt Boyd
0.297 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Andrew Moore
0.297 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto

Matt Boyd allows a .314 BA, but walks quite a few hitters as well. Since the Royals tend to be a team of hackers, they do well against this kind of pitcher. The list is mostly the usual suspects, however.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.335, 0.772 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Moore.
0.310, 0.753 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.742 — Gerardo Parra batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.297, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.319, 0.735 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.316, 0.734 — Melky Cabrera batting against Matt Boyd.
0.281, 0.733 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dillon Peters.
0.311, 0.733 — Starlin Castro batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.313, 0.731 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd.
0.292, 0.730 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Joseph Biagini.

It’s an Altuve day with Eric Hosmer the consensus second choice. Blackmon has a decent bit of history against Cueto and hits him well.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Pablo Sandoval	41
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Carlos Beltran	22
Allen Cordoba	21
Jorge Soler	20
Jayson Werth	20
Kyle Higashioka	20
Taylor Featherston	19
Tyler Flowers	19
Chris Gimenez	19
Andrew Benintendi	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Brad Miller	17
Miguel Cabrera	17
Jose Altuve	16
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Howie Kendrick	15
Gorkys Hernandez	15
Paul Janish	15
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Nick Delmonico	14
Jose Lobaton	14
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Juan Graterol	14
Jake Marisnick	13
Luis Torrens	13
Tyler Moore	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Stephen Drew	13
Mike Napoli	13
Ender Inciarte	13
Matt Carpenter	12
Josh Donaldson	12
Hunter Pence	12
Manuel Pina	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Paul Goldschmidt	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Martin Prado	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Luke Maile	12
Danny Ortiz	11
Steven Souza	11
Brock Stassi	11
Mitch Moreland	11
Tom Murphy	11
Curtis Granderson	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Mike Trout	11
Pat Valaika	11
Tommy La Stella	11
Michael Taylor	11
Trea Turner	11
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	11
Caleb Joseph	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Anthony Rizzo	10
Dominic Smith	10
Tyler Collins	10
Alex Avila	10
Jared Hoying	10
Ehire Adrianza	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Adonis Garcia	10
Jabari Blash	10

Looks like the Giants don’t have anyone else to play third.

Good luck!

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