Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — David Peralta batting against Jordan Lyles
0.324 — Starlin Castro batting against Martin Perez
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake
0.312 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Moore
0.311 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Jordan Lyles
0.311 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton
0.310 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.310 — Didi Gregorius batting against Martin Perez
0.309 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson
0.309 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Martin Perez

Lyles played for the Rockies before the Padres, so he’s pitched a little bit in Phoenix. The results have not been good, a .380/.442/.583 opponents slash line. The Diamondbacks, after watching Clayton Kershaw get pummeled on Thursday, might start believing they can win the division! I don’t think they are going to let up until the Dodgers clinch.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.311, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.309, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.324, 0.741 — Starlin Castro batting against Martin Perez.
0.306, 0.740 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.325, 0.738 — David Peralta batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.310, 0.736 — Jean Segura batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.314, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.312, 0.726 — Avisail Garcia batting against Matt Moore.
0.272, 0.725 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Yu Darvish.
0.294, 0.725 — Jose Ramirez batting against Wade Miley.

Altuve comes out on top of the NN, but Castro is the consensus first pick, ranking high in both models.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Pablo Sandoval	42
Arismendy Alcantara	24
Aaron Hill	23
Andrew Benintendi	23
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Jayson Werth	23
Nick Delmonico	21
Allen Cordoba	21
Brad Miller	21
Kyle Higashioka	20
Jorge Soler	20
Tyler Flowers	19
Taylor Featherston	19
Mark Zagunis	18
Curtis Granderson	18
Miguel Cabrera	17
Tyler Moore	17
Jose Altuve	16
Byron Buxton	16
Tommy La Stella	15
Mike Trout	15
Paul Janish	15
Chase D'Arnaud	15
Emilio Bonifacio	14
Francisco Cervelli	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Ryan Schimpf	14
Tom Murphy	13
Jake Marisnick	13
Chris Coghlan	13
Austin Hedges	13
Lewis Brinson	13
Luis Torrens	13
Stephen Drew	13
Matt Reynolds	12
Manuel Pina	12
Josh Donaldson	12
Nick Ahmed	12
Nolan Fontana	12
Andrelton Simmons	12
Josh Bell	12
Paul Goldschmidt	12
Daniel Robertson	12
Matt Carpenter	12
Jarrod Dyson	12
Luke Maile	12
Martin Prado	12
Luis Valbuena	11
Brandon Drury	11
Scott Van Slyke	11
Brock Stassi	11
Franklin Barreto	11
Jared Hoying	11
Ryan McMahon	11
Danny Ortiz	11
Chase Utley	10
Matt Davidson	10
Stuart Turner	10
Carlos Moncrief	10
Yasmani Grandal	10
Kaleb Cowart	10
Yadier Molina	10
Luis Sardinas	10
Yulieski Gurriel	10
A.J. Ellis	10
Tyler Collins	10

Good luck!

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