Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.350 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett
0.336 — Alex Presley batting against Brett Anderson
0.333 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden
0.331 — John Hicks batting against Brett Anderson
0.324 — Jose Iglesias batting against Brett Anderson
0.320 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Josh Tomlin
0.320 — Dixon Machado batting against Brett Anderson
0.318 — Mikie Mahtook batting against Brett Anderson
0.315 — Welington Castillo batting against Josh Tomlin
0.314 — Trey Mancini batting against Josh Tomlin
The Astros and Athletics are playing a double header, so there is the possibility of doubling down with Jose Altuve. I suspect he will be rested in one of the games so keep an eye on the starting lineups. Otherwise, Log5 picks a number of Tigers against Brett Anderson.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.350, 0.780 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.333, 0.773 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.284, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mark Leiter.
0.320, 0.734 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.276, 0.730 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Wood.
0.336, 0.730 — Alex Presley batting against Brett Anderson.
0.286, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.331, 0.726 — John Hicks batting against Brett Anderson.
0.314, 0.726 — Trey Mancini batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.295, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.311, 0.726 — Josh Reddick batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.308, 0.726 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Daniel Gossett.
It’s all Altuve. Gossett is schedule to pitch in the early game.
As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.
Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:
Good luck!
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2wPhvvD
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