Massive Tie Scenarios

The chance for a five-way tie for the second AL Wild Card slot fell Thursday night as the Twins continue to win. Only the Mariners kept pace with Minnesota, as the Twins blew a save but walked off on a Byron Buxton home run in the bottom of the tenth.

I’m keeping track of the various probabilities of this tie on this spreadsheet. The most probable outcome has the Twins winning five more games for a win total of 82. The probability of any tie between these five teams is 0.00009:

Team	Won-lost
Twins	5-11
Angels	8-8
Mariners	8-7
Rangers	10-6
Royals	10-6

The Rangers and Royals are probably out of it. I’m now also tracking the three way tie among the Twins, Angels, and Mariners, and the probability of that stands at 0.0095, or close to one percent.

It was a very good day for the massive tie scenario in the NL as the Rockies lost while the Cubs and Cardinals won. The most likely outcome has the Rockies winning seven more games for a total of 87. The overall probability of this four-way tie occurring is 0.0016. Here is the 87 win scenario:

Team	Won-lost
Rockies	7-8
Cubs	7-9
Brewers	10-6
Cardinals	10-6

Note that the four-way tie in the NL is more likely than the three-way tie in the AL. The weekend series between the Cardinals and Cubs could make or break this scenario.

Of course, there is the three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card and a three-way tie for the division buried in there. Each would be fun on its own. Milwaukee finishes the season with three games against St. Louis, so they would need to be separated by a odd number of games going into that series for a tie to be possible. The above calculation ignores that.

For today, the best outcomes would be:

• The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
• The Royals end the Indians winning streak.
• The Twins lose to the Blue Jays.
• The Mariners beat the Astros.
• The Brewers emerge victorious against the Marlins.
• The Rockies fall to the Padres.
• The Angels and the Rangers can go either way. The Angels winning is better for the three-way tie.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2juE7Mc