Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.287 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.284 — Tim Beckham batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.277 — Mitch Haniger batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.276 — Mallex Smith batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.276 — Domingo Santana batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.276 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.272 — Omar Narvaez batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.271 — Cody Bellinger batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.270 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.268 — Whit Merrifield batting against Felix Hernandez.

Bailey allowed a ton of hits in the previous two seasons, so it’s not surprising the Mariners hitters are expected to do well against him. Gordon has a history of being a high BA, low OBP hitter, the kind who generates a high hit average. Beckham comes into the game with a .400 BA this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.276, 0.700 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.287, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.264, 0.691 — Jean Segura batting against Anibal Sanchez.
• 0.267, 0.688 — Anthony Rendon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
• 0.268, 0.687 — Whit Merrifield batting against Felix Hernandez.
• 0.270, 0.686 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
• 0.284, 0.684 — Tim Beckham batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.276, 0.683 — Mallex Smith batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.277, 0.681 — Mitch Haniger batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.265, 0.681 — Michael Brantley batting against Masahiro Tanaka.

There is some disagreement between the two lists today. The NN relies more on the batter than the pitcher, and at this time of year the long-term values of hit average tend to dominate. So the NN picks Altuve against Tanaka. Gordon is the consensus first pick, Altuve is the consensus second choice. Tanaka allowed 14 hits in 12 1/3 innings, but has not walked a batter.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2FXxo5x